IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·infant_industry_protection_capability_effect

Tariff protection for infant industries under export-discipline conditionality (Korea steel, Brazil Embraer) produces capability build-up that free-trade-from-start counterfactuals would not have generated in the same timeframe.

PARTIALengine/runs/infant_industry_protection_capability_effect

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+1.188, |gap|/pre_sd=0.89, p_perm=0.5; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+1.188, |gap|/pre_sd=0.89, p_perm=0.5; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 11 country or place units from 1960 to 2023, using a synthetic control design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Infant industry protection indicator
  • Tariff rate weighted
What we checked
  • Log manufacturing value added
  • High tech export share
  • Manufactured export share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/infant_industry_protection_capability_effect
1007550250196019922023KORBRAMEXARGCHLINDIDN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_manufacturing_value_added across 11 sampled countries over 1960–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for infant_industry_protection_capability_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/infant_industry_protection_capability_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-01T08:48:55Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Tariff protection for infant industries under export-discipline conditionality (Korea steel, Brazil Embraer) produces capability build-up that free-trade-from-start counterfactuals would not have generated in the same timeframe.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synthetic control of POSCO (KOR steel) and Embraer (BRA aerospace) sectors vs free-trade-baseline counterfactual donor pool; cumulative export-share gain >50% within 20y with p<0.10 supports.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
11 countries · 1960 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Synthetic-control with KOR-steel and BRA-aerospace as separate treated sector-units and the developing-economy donor pool (MEX, ARG, CHL, IND, IDN, PHL, EGY, TUR, THA) as free-trade-baseline counterfactual. Pre- treatment fit window 1960-1968 (KOR) and 1960-1969 (BRA); post-treatment 20-year window. Outcomes: high-tech / manufactured export shares, TFP. Caveat: two treated cases — selection-on-success risk explicit; report falsification placebos across donor pool.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_manufacturing_value_added
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KDtier 2
log
high_tech_export_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level
manufactured_export_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UNtier 2
level
log_tfp_pwt
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log
infant_industry_protection_indicator
treatment
constructed:country-sector indicator = 1 for KOR steel from 1968 (POSCO founding) and BRA aerospace from 1969 (Embraer founding) undtier 5
indicator
tariff_rate_weighted
treatment
unctad:trade_indicatorstier 2
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — infant_industry_protection_capability_effect

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+1.188, |gap|/pre_sd=0.89, p_perm=0.5; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Tariff protection for infant industries under export-discipline conditionality (Korea steel, Brazil Embraer) produces capability build-up that free-trade-from-start counterfactuals would not have generated in the same timeframe.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: KOR
  • event_year: 1991
  • n_donors: 5
  • donor_weights (top): {'THA': 1.0, 'BRA': 0.0, 'CHL': 0.0, 'IND': 0.0, 'IDN': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 0.4972909900198052
  • pre_period_sd: 1.337840300375003
  • mean_post_gap: 1.187809479102149
  • end_period_gap: 1.48953096882909
  • post_period_years: [1991, 2023]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.5
  • n_placebos: 5
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD → log_manufacturing_value_added (outcome, n=8624)
  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS → high_tech_export_share (outcome, n=3283)
  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN → manufactured_export_share (outcome, n=9757)
  • pwt:rtfpna → log_tfp_pwt (outcome, n=6412)
  • constructed: country-sector indicator = 1 for KOR steel from 1968 (POSCO founding) and BRA aerospace from 1969 (Embraer founding) under export-discipline tariff regime. → infant_industry_protection_indicator (treatment, n=704)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-01T08:48:55+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from developmentalist claim that export-discipline conditioned tariff protection (KOR steel, BRA Embraer) builds capability beyond free-trade counterfactuals.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.