IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·frontier_income_persistence_market_institutions_1960_2024

Countries with stronger market-institution scores around 1960 were more likely to remain in, or converge into, the high-income frontier by 2024 than countries with weaker property rights and heavier state-directed allocation, after controlling for initial GDP per capita.

PARTIALengine/runs/frontier_income_persistence_market_institutions_1960_2024

PARTIAL — coef=-3.379e+05, p=0.261 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-3.379e+05, p=0.261 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 35 country or place units from 1960 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for region and decade.

what was measured
What changed
  • Baseline market institution score
What we checked
  • Frontier status or convergence
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/frontier_income_persistence_market_institutions_1960_2024
1007550250196019922024USAGBRDEUFRAJPNCANAUS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show frontier_status_or_convergence across 35 sampled countries over 1960–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for frontier_income_persistence_market_institutions_1960_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/frontier_income_persistence_market_institutions_1960_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:48Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Countries with stronger market-institution scores around 1960 were more likely to remain in, or converge into, the high-income frontier by 2024 than countries with weaker property rights and heavier state-directed allocation, after controlling for initial GDP per capita.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if baseline market-institution score positively predicts 2024 frontier status or convergence with p<=0.05 and a one standard deviation score gain predicts at least a 10 percentage point higher frontier probability. REFUTED if the relationship is negative with p<=0.05 and magnitude at least 10 points. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      long_horizon_frontier_status_market_institutions
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
region, decade
Clustering
country
Sample
35 countries · 1960 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Long-horizon panel and endpoint logistic/linear probability checks for frontier persistence.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
frontier_status_or_convergence
outcome
pwt:rgdpotier 3
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
indicator for >=70 percent of US GDP per capita by 2024, plus continuous convergence ratio
baseline_market_institution_score
treatment
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
vdem:private_property_and_rule_of_lawtier 4
wgi:rule_of_lawtier 4
standardized average of earliest available property-rights, sound-money, trade, and regulation scores
initial_gdp_pc
control
pwt:rgdpo_poptier 3
log level at baseline
education_baseline
control
barro_lee:average_years_schoolingtier 5
baseline adult schooling

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — frontier_income_persistence_market_institutions_1960_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-3.379e+05, p=0.261 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Countries with stronger market-institution scores around 1960 were more likely to remain in, or converge into, the high-income frontier by 2024 than countries with weaker property rights and heavier state-directed allocation, after controlling for initial GDP per capita.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if baseline market-institution score positively predicts 2024 frontier status or convergence with p<=0.05 and a one standard deviation score gain predicts at least a 10 percentage point higher frontier probability. REFUTED if the relationship is negative with p<=0.05 and magnitude at least 10 points. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: long_horizon_frontier_status_market_institutions

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -3.379e+05
  • Std error: 3.002e+05
  • p-value: 0.261
  • Observations: 897, countries: 35
  • Within R²: 0.262
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rgdpo; world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → frontier_status_or_convergence (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • fraser_efw:summary_index; vdem:private_property_and_rule_of_law; wgi:rule_of_law → baseline_market_institution_score (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • pwt:rgdpo_pop → initial_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=pwt, n=10399)

Variables missing data

  • barro_lee:average_years_schooling (controls, name=education_baseline) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:48+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.