IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·frontier_tfp_market_liberal_panel_1970_2024

Among high-income and near-frontier economies from 1970 to 2024, lower product-market regulation, stronger competition, and stronger property rights predict higher long-run TFP growth than state ownership or targeted industrial-policy intensity.

REFUTEDengine/runs/frontier_tfp_market_liberal_panel_1970_2024

REFUTED — coef=-0.06298 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0331

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-0.06298 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0331

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 24 country or place units from 1970 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market liberal score
  • State ownership intensity
What we checked
  • Productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/frontier_tfp_market_liberal_panel_1970_2024
1007550250197019972024USAGBRDEUFRAJPNCANAUS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth across 24 sampled countries over 1970–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for frontier_tfp_market_liberal_panel_1970_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/frontier_tfp_market_liberal_panel_1970_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:49Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Among high-income and near-frontier economies from 1970 to 2024, lower product-market regulation, stronger competition, and stronger property rights predict higher long-run TFP growth than state ownership or targeted industrial-policy intensity.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if market_liberal_score positively predicts TFP growth with p<=0.05 and at least 0.20pp annual effect per standard deviation, while state_ownership_intensity is zero or negative. REFUTED if market_liberal_score is negative with p<=0.05 or state ownership dominates positively. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      frontier_tfp_market_liberal_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
24 countries · 1970 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Baseline panel FE with decade-average robustness to reduce cyclical noise.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
oecd:mfptier 2
annual and ten-year rolling TFP growth
market_liberal_score
treatment
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
standardized low-regulation/high-property-rights index
state_ownership_intensity
treatment
oecd_pmr:STATE_INVOLtier 4
standardized state-control proxy
initial_income
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log GDP per capita
human_capital
control
pwt:hctier 3
human capital index

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — frontier_tfp_market_liberal_panel_1970_2024

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-0.06298 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0331

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Among high-income and near-frontier economies from 1970 to 2024, lower product-market regulation, stronger competition, and stronger property rights predict higher long-run TFP growth than state ownership or targeted industrial-policy intensity.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if market_liberal_score positively predicts TFP growth with p<=0.05 and at least 0.20pp annual effect per standard deviation, while state_ownership_intensity is zero or negative. REFUTED if market_liberal_score is negative with p<=0.05 or state ownership dominates positively. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: frontier_tfp_market_liberal_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.06298
  • Std error: 0.02946
  • p-value: 0.0331
  • Observations: 485, countries: 19
  • Within R²: 0.53
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna; oecd:mfp → tfp_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • fraser_efw:summary_index → market_liberal_score (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • oecd_pmr:STATE_INVOL → state_ownership_intensity (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → initial_income (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:49+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.