IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·global_value_chain_participation_upgrade

Global value chain (GVC) participation predicts real GDP per capita income upgrading when firms can enter and exit freely, but not when rents are reserved for protected incumbents, in a panel of developing and emerging economies 1990-2020.

The directional claim is that the interaction between GVC participation (backward plus forward linkage intensity) and domestic entry freedom is positive and significant for income growth, while GVC participation alone shows no significant or weaker effect.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/global_value_chain_participation_upgrade

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (22)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient observations after listwise deletion (22)

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 37 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Gvc participation index
  • Domestic entry freedom index
Possible pathway
  • Backward linkage intensity
  • Forward linkage intensity
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
  • Real wage manufacturing growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/global_value_chain_participation_upgrade
1007550250199020052020ARGBGDBGRBRACHLCHNCOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 37 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for global_value_chain_participation_upgrade. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/global_value_chain_participation_upgrade/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:39Z

Global value chain (GVC) participation predicts real GDP per capita income upgrading when firms can enter and exit freely, but not when rents are reserved for protected incumbents, in a panel of developing and emerging economies 1990-2020. The directional claim is that the interaction between GVC participation (backward plus forward linkage intensity) and domestic entry freedom is positive and significant for income growth, while GVC participation alone shows no significant or weaker effect.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if β3 (GVC × entry_freedom) is positive and significant at p<0.10, AND the GVC coefficient in the bottom tercile of entry freedom is insignificant or negative while the top tercile coefficient is positive and significant. PARTIAL if β3 is positive and significant but β1 is also positive (GVC helps regardless, just more with entry). REFUTED if β3 is negative and significant. INFORMATIVE: Bartik-IV robustness should retain the sign of β3.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_gvc_entry_freedom_interaction_income_upgrade
threshold: β_interaction > 0 at p<=0.10  AND β_gvc_bottom_tercile p >= 0.10 or coefficient < 0  AND β_gvc_top_tercile > 0 at p<=0.10  AND IV robustness retains sign of β_interaction.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
37 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE panel with interaction: growth = β0 + β1*GVC_participation + β2*entry_freedom + β3*(GVC × entry_freedom) + controls + FE. Subsample analysis at terciles of entry freedom. Robustness: (1) instrument GVC participation using bilateral-distance-weighted world GVC growth (Bartik-style shift-share); (2) exclude China; (3) use 5-year non- overlapping averages to reduce serial correlation.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
annual_log_change
real_wage_manufacturing_growth
outcome
ilo:earnings_manufacturing_realtier 2
annual_log_change
gvc_participation_index
treatment
oecd:gvc_participationtier 2
level
domestic_entry_freedom_index
treatment
oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entrytier 4
inverted_scale
backward_linkage_intensity
channel
oecd:backward_linkagestier 2
pct_gross_exports
forward_linkage_intensity
channel
oecd:forward_linkagestier 2
pct_gross_exports
initial_log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
fdi_inflows_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — global_value_chain_participation_upgrade

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (22)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Global value chain (GVC) participation predicts real GDP per capita income upgrading when firms can enter and exit freely, but not when rents are reserved for protected incumbents, in a panel of developing and emerging economies 1990-2020. The directional claim is that the interaction between GVC participation (backward plus forward linkage intensity) and domestic entry freedom is positive and significant for income growth, while GVC participation alone shows no significant or weaker effect.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if β3 (GVC × entry_freedom) is positive and significant at p<0.10, AND the GVC coefficient in the bottom tercile of entry freedom is insignificant or negative while the top tercile coefficient is positive and significant. PARTIAL if β3 is positive and significant but β1 is also positive (GVC helps regardless, just more with entry). REFUTED if β3 is negative and significant. INFORMATIVE: Bartik-IV robustness should retain the sign of β3.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_gvc_entry_freedom_interaction_income_upgrade

Estimate

  • Error: insufficient observations after listwise deletion (22)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entry → domestic_entry_freedom_index (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → initial_log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9936)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Variables missing data

  • ilo:earnings_manufacturing_real (outcome, name=real_wage_manufacturing_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd_tiva:gvc_participation (treatment, name=gvc_participation_index) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd_tiva:backward_linkages (decomposition_channels, name=backward_linkage_intensity) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd_tiva:forward_linkages (decomposition_channels, name=forward_linkage_intensity) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:39+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data readiness: - OECD TiVA GVC participation (pending direct fetcher; UNCTAD-Eora fallback) - OECD PMR barriers to entry (ready for subset) - WDI GDP pc, trade openness, FDI inflows (ready) - PWT hc, WGI RL.EST (ready) - ILOSTAT manufacturing wages (pending; WDI fallback flagged)

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.