IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·gm_crop_adoption_yield_convergence

Countries permitting GM crop cultivation without prolonged moratoria experienced faster agricultural yield convergence than ban or delay countries.

REFUTEDengine/runs/gm_crop_adoption_yield_convergence

REFUTED — coef=+31.57 (sign opposite claim -), p=0

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+31.57 (sign opposite claim -), p=0

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/gm_crop_adoption_yield_convergence
1007550250199020072023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for gm_crop_adoption_yield_convergence. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/gm_crop_adoption_yield_convergence/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:49Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Countries permitting GM crop cultivation without prolonged moratoria experienced faster agricultural yield convergence than ban or delay countries.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_gm_crop_adoption_yield_convergence
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:AG.PRD.CROP.XDtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:1 for USA from 1996 onward; ARG from 1996 onward; BRA from 2003 onward; CAN from 1996 onwardtier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — gm_crop_adoption_yield_convergence

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+31.57 (sign opposite claim -), p=0

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Countries permitting GM crop cultivation without prolonged moratoria experienced faster agricultural yield convergence than ban or delay countries.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_gm_crop_adoption_yield_convergence

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +31.57
  • Std error: 3.591
  • p-value: 0
  • Observations: 552, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.341
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:AG.PRD.CROP.XD → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13526)
  • constructed: 1 for USA from 1996 onward; ARG from 1996 onward; BRA from 2003 onward; CAN from 1996 onward → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1020)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:49+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.