IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·gradualist_vs_shock_therapy_transition_outcomes

Deng's 1978 reforms succeeded not through pure market liberalisation but through dual-track pricing, TVE experimentation, and SEZ strategic openings — a gradualist-pragmatist pattern that pure shock-therapy could not reproduce in post-Soviet economies.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/gradualist_vs_shock_therapy_transition_outcomes

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'gradualist_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'gradualist_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 15 country or place units from 1989 to 2010, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Gradualist indicator
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Maddison real income pc
  • Productivity index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/gradualist_vs_shock_therapy_transition_outcomes
1007550250198920002010CHNVNMRUSPOLESTLVALTU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_ppp across 15 sampled countries over 1989–2010.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for gradualist_vs_shock_therapy_transition_outcomes. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/gradualist_vs_shock_therapy_transition_outcomes/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

8 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Democratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:50Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Deng's 1978 reforms succeeded not through pure market liberalisation but through dual-track pricing, TVE experimentation, and SEZ strategic openings — a gradualist-pragmatist pattern that pure shock-therapy could not reproduce in post-Soviet economies.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Panel FE of log GDP per capita on gradualist (CHN,VNM) vs shock-therapy (RUS,POL,EST,...) dummy with country and year FE 1978-2000; falsified if gradualist coefficient is not positive at p<0.10.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
15 countries · 1989 – 2010
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel of post-1978 transition economies coded by gradualist (CHN, VNM) vs shock-therapy (RUS, POL, EST, etc.) reform pace. Outcome: real GDP per capita trajectory and TFP. Tests whether gradualist sequencing dominates pure shock therapy on output measures.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
maddison_real_gdp_pc
outcome
maddison:gdppc_ppptier 3
log
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
gradualist_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for CHN, VNM (gradualist); 0 for shock-therapy post-Soviet statestier 5
indicator
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — gradualist_vs_shock_therapy_transition_outcomes

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'gradualist_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Deng's 1978 reforms succeeded not through pure market liberalisation but through dual-track pricing, TVE experimentation, and SEZ strategic openings — a gradualist-pragmatist pattern that pure shock-therapy could not reproduce in post-Soviet economies.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Panel FE of log GDP per capita on gradualist (CHN,VNM) vs shock-therapy (RUS,POL,EST,...) dummy with country and year FE 1978-2000; falsified if gradualist coefficient is not positive at p<0.10.

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'gradualist_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • maddison:gdppc_ppp → maddison_real_gdp_pc (outcome, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for CHN, VNM (gradualist); 0 for shock-therapy post-Soviet states → gradualist_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=330)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_initial_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:50+00:00

Notes

Seeded from a developmentalist position-claim that Deng's gradualist dual-track/TVE/SEZ pattern outperforms pure shock therapy. Cross-country transition panel; human review required to address China's unique scale, diaspora capital, and rural starting point.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.