IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·guyana_suriname_oil_discovery_2015_2024

Guyana's 2015 Liza-1 discovery (and subsequent Stabroek-block developments through 2024) and Suriname's 2020 Block-58 discoveries produced one of the most extreme oil-and-gas-windfall growth events on record.

The pre-registered claim is (a) Guyana's cumulative log real-GDP per capita 2015-2024 exceeds 1.0 log-points (i.e. >170% cumulative), AND (b) the gap between Guyana and a synthetic peer pool of small frontier-resource economies is statistically distinguishable, AND (c) the Suriname discovery effect is measurable but smaller, with cumulative real-GDP-pc growth 2020-2024 in the top quartile of small-economy growth. The mechanism is the offshore-oil resource-windfall.

PARTIALengine/runs/guyana_suriname_oil_discovery_2015_2024

PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0706, ratio=1.07; threshold 170.0%, observed 7.1%

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=panel_summary, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0706, ratio=1.07; threshold 170.0%, observed 7.1%

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Guyana oil indicator
  • Suriname oil indicator
What we checked
  • Log income pc constant
  • Hydrocarbon rents share income
  • Foreign investment inflow share income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/guyana_suriname_oil_discovery_2015_2024
1007550250201020172024GUYSURTTOBHSBRBJAMECU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_constant across 8 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for guyana_suriname_oil_discovery_2015_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/guyana_suriname_oil_discovery_2015_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:11:18Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Guyana's 2015 Liza-1 discovery (and subsequent Stabroek-block developments through 2024) and Suriname's 2020 Block-58 discoveries produced one of the most extreme oil-and-gas-windfall growth events on record. The pre-registered claim is (a) Guyana's cumulative log real-GDP per capita 2015-2024 exceeds 1.0 log-points (i.e. >170% cumulative), AND (b) the gap between Guyana and a synthetic peer pool of small frontier-resource economies is statistically distinguishable, AND (c) the Suriname discovery effect is measurable but smaller, with cumulative real-GDP-pc growth 2020-2024 in the top quartile of small-economy growth. The mechanism is the offshore-oil resource-windfall.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc 2015-2024 (GUY) does not exceed 1.0 log-points, OR (b) hydrocarbon rents share of GDP (GUY, 2024) is not at least 30 percentage points above peer pool, OR (c) Suriname cumulative log_gdp_pc 2020-2024 is below the LATAM median.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_cumulative_growth_thresholds
threshold: cumulative_log_gdp_pc(GUY, 2015-2024) >= 1.0 AND hydrocarbon_rents_share_gdp(GUY, 2024) - peer_pool_median(2024) >= 30 AND cumulative_log_gdp_pc(SUR, 2020-2024) >= LATAM_median

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
country
Sample
8 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Primary: descriptive cumulative-log-GDP-pc trajectory for GUY and SUR vs peer pool. Secondary: synth_did with frontier-resource peer donor pool.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_constant
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
hydrocarbon_rents_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZStier 2
level
fdi_inflow_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
current_account_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZStier 2
level
guyana_oil_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for GUY from 2019 (first oil) onwardtier 5
binary
suriname_oil_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for SUR from 2020 onwardtier 5
binary
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
us_gdp_growth
control
fred:GDPC1tier 1
yoy_growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — guyana_suriname_oil_discovery_2015_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0706, ratio=1.07; threshold 170.0%, observed 7.1%

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Guyana's 2015 Liza-1 discovery (and subsequent Stabroek-block developments through 2024) and Suriname's 2020 Block-58 discoveries produced one of the most extreme oil-and-gas-windfall growth events on record. The pre-registered claim is (a) Guyana's cumulative log real-GDP per capita 2015-2024 exceeds 1.0 log-points (i.e. >170% cumulative), AND (b) the gap between Guyana and a synthetic peer pool of small frontier-resource economies is statistically distinguishable, AND (c) the Suriname discovery effect is measurable but smaller, with cumulative real-GDP-pc growth 2020-2024 in the top quartile of small-economy growth. The mechanism is the offshore-oil resource-windfall.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc 2015-2024 (GUY) does not exceed 1.0 log-points, OR (b) hydrocarbon rents share of GDP (GUY, 2024) is not at least 30 percentage points above peer pool, OR (c) Suriname cumulative log_gdp_pc 2020-2024 is below the LATAM median.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_cumulative_growth_thresholds

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: GUY
  • treatment_value: 9.557564023645861
  • donor_pool_median: 8.90591083736949
  • ratio: 1.073170863505843
  • log_diff: 0.07061769002620855
  • n_donor_countries: 7
  • end_year_window: [2019, 2024]

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 170.0}

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14131)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS (outcome, name=hydrocarbon_rents_share_gdp)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS (outcome, name=fdi_inflow_share_gdp)
  • world_bank_wdi:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS (outcome, name=current_account_share_gdp)
  • constructed: binary = 1 for GUY from 2019 (first oil) onward (treatment, name=guyana_oil_indicator)
  • constructed: binary = 1 for SUR from 2020 onward (treatment, name=suriname_oil_indicator)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU (controls, name=oil_price)
  • fred:GDPC1 (controls, name=us_gdp_growth)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T10:11:18+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests the offshore-oil-windfall growth case as a clean natural-experiment for resource-curse / blessing dynamics.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.