IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·import_substitution_long_run_export_underperformance

Import-substitution industrialisation episodes underperform export-oriented openness episodes in 25-year GDP-per-capita and labour-productivity windows across a broad panel of developing economies during 1960-2020.

PARTIALengine/runs/import_substitution_long_run_export_underperformance

PARTIAL — coef=-0.7252, p=0.924 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.7252, p=0.924 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 62 country or place units from 1960 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Import substitution episode
  • Trade openness
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
  • Labour productivity growth
  • Export growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/import_substitution_long_run_export_underperformance
1007550250196019902020ARGBRACHLMEXURYCOLPER
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 62 sampled countries over 1960–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for import_substitution_long_run_export_underperformance. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/import_substitution_long_run_export_underperformance/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:51Z

Import-substitution industrialisation episodes underperform export-oriented openness episodes in 25-year GDP-per-capita and labour-productivity windows across a broad panel of developing economies during 1960-2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Falsified if import-substitution episodes show statistically higher or equal 25-year cumulative GDP per capita growth and labour-productivity growth compared to export-oriented episodes after controlling for initial income, human capital, and institutional quality.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_isi_vs_export_orientation
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
62 countries · 1960 – 2020
Evidence type
causal

Panel FE with country and year fixed effects. Robustness via synthetic control using ISI-adopters as treated and export-oriented peers as donors.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
annual_pct
labour_productivity_growth
outcome
pwt:rgdpo_emptier 3
annual_pct
export_growth
outcome
wits:export_value_constant_usdtier 2
annual_pct
import_substitution_episode
treatment
constructed:binary_from_trade_policy_codingtier 5
binary
trade_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
initial_gdp_per_capita
control
maddison:mpd2020tier 3
log_level
human_capital
control
owid:mean-years-of-schooling-long-run-1870tier 2
level
institutional_quality
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — import_substitution_long_run_export_underperformance

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.7252, p=0.924 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Import-substitution industrialisation episodes underperform export-oriented openness episodes in 25-year GDP-per-capita and labour-productivity windows across a broad panel of developing economies during 1960-2020.
  • Falsification rule: Falsified if import-substitution episodes show statistically higher or equal 25-year cumulative GDP per capita growth and labour-productivity growth compared to export-oriented episodes after controlling for initial income, human capital, and institutional quality.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_isi_vs_export_orientation

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.7252
  • Std error: 7.618
  • p-value: 0.924
  • Observations: 1123, countries: 57
  • Within R²: -0.00722
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • pwt:rgdpo_emp → labour_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=9529)
  • world_bank_wits:export_value_constant_usd → export_growth (outcome, publisher=wits, n=14446)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • maddison:mpd2020 → initial_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • wgi:RL.EST → institutional_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:binary_from_trade_policy_coding (treatment, name=import_substitution_episode) — vintage not on disk
  • owid:mean-years-of-schooling-long-run-1870 (controls, name=human_capital) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:51+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

ISI episode coding requires historical policy classification; Sachs-Warner and Wacziarg-Welch provide panel openness indicators but not explicit ISI dummies. Manual coding needed for key cases.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.