IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·washington_consensus_vs_developmental_state_performance

Argentine Menem-era rapid privatisation and opening 1991–2001 produced a decade of growth followed by collapse — underperforming the comparable-size Korean developmental-state path.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/washington_consensus_vs_developmental_state_performance

SUPPORTED — KOR cumulative GDP-pc growth over its matched decade 1989-1999 (start level $8,878 ≈ ARG 1991 $8,730) was +0.614 log-points (+84.8%), vs ARG 1991-2001 +0.141 log-points (+15.1%). Gap = +0.473 log-points (+69.6pp), at/above the +0.30 log-point (~+35pp) SUPPORTED threshold.

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. KOR cumulative GDP-pc growth over its matched decade 1989-1999 (start level $8,878 ≈ ARG 1991 $8,730) was +0.614 log-points (+84.8%), vs ARG 1991-2001 +0.141 log-points (+15.1%).

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 2 country or place units from 1991 to 2001, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Real income per capita
  • Real income per capita cost-of-living adjusted
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/washington_consensus_vs_developmental_state_performance
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Argentine Menem-era rapid privatisation and opening 1991–2001 produced a decade of growth followed by collapse — underperforming the comparable-size Korean developmental-state path.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if cumulative real-GDP-per-capita log-growth gap (KOR matched decade minus ARG 1991-2001) is at least +0.30 log-points (~+35pp cumulative advantage). REFUTED if the gap is <= 0 (ARG matched or beat KOR over the matched decade). PARTIAL if 0 < gap < +0.30 log-points. KOR's matched decade is the 10-year window starting in the year KOR's real GDP-pc (WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD, constant 2015 USD) was closest to ARG's 1991 starting level (the "comparable starting point" matched-decade reading). INFORMATIVE: PPP-based growth gap (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD) reported as a robustness panel; supplementary diagnostic for the Park Chung-hee developmental-state era 1962-1972 (NOT level-matched, documented as low-base context). METHOD_VALID: ARG 1991, ARG 2001, KOR match-year, KOR match-year+10 must all be present in WDI; otherwise inconclusive (data gap on world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD).

formal test & threshold
test:      bilateral_matched_decade_log_growth_gap
threshold: PRIMARY: log(KOR_GDPpc[match+10]/KOR_GDPpc[match]) - log(ARG_GDPpc[2001]/ARG_GDPpc[1991]) >= 0.30

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
2 countries · 1991 – 2001
Evidence type
descriptive

Bilateral descriptive comparison of Menem-era Argentina (1991-2001) vs Korean developmental-state-era trajectory (matched-decade). Reports cumulative growth and crisis-output-cost differential. Magnitude is dispositive; not a DiD identification exercise.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
—
real_gdp_per_capita_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
—

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Washington Consensus vs Developmental State performance

Verdict: SUPPORTED — KOR cumulative GDP-pc growth over its matched decade 1989-1999 (start level $8,878 ≈ ARG 1991 $8,730) was +0.614 log-points (+84.8%), vs ARG 1991-2001 +0.141 log-points (+15.1%). Gap = +0.473 log-points (+69.6pp), at/above the +0.30 log-point (~+35pp) SUPPORTED threshold.

Summary

  • ARG 1991-2001 (Menem-era convertibility & privatisation): real GDP-pc went $8,730 -> $10,052 (constant 2015 USD), cumulative +0.141 log-points (+15.1%).
  • KOR matched decade 1989-1999 (starting GDP-pc closest to ARG 1991 level): $8,878 -> $16,403, cumulative +0.614 log-points (+84.8%).
  • Cumulative log-growth gap KOR - ARG = +0.473 log-points (+69.6pp).
  • SUPPORTED threshold: gap >= +0.30 log-points (~+35pp). Met.
  • PPP robustness: not available (series missing required years).
  • Supplementary KOR Park-era 1962-1972 (low-base, NOT level-matched): +0.743 log-points (+110.2%); KOR-ARG gap = +0.602.

Method

Bilateral matched-decade comparison. ARG window is fixed to the Menem convertibility era 1991-2001 (the spec's treatment-tag window). The KOR "comparable decade" is chosen by matching on starting real GDP-pc level: KOR start year = the year minimising |KOR GDP-pc(year) - ARG GDP-pc(1991)|, using WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (constant 2015 USD). The KOR window then spans [match_year, match_year+10] to mirror ARG's horizon. This is the descriptive approach the developmentalist claim invites: "compare like-for-like starting levels and see which growth model produced more cumulative real income."

Cumulative growth is reported in natural logs (additive, crisis-symmetric: a 50% boom and 50% bust net to roughly zero). PPP-based GDP-pc is computed in parallel as a robustness panel but does not gate the verdict (PPP coverage starts in 1990 so it cannot anchor a 1960s/70s KOR window).

Steelman of the alternative reading

The market-liberal counter-frame would protest that the ARG 2001 collapse was driven by the convertibility regime's fixed peg (a Washington Consensus deviation: real liberal advice was a flexible exchange rate), not by privatisation per se. On that reading the comparison conflates two policies. This replication intentionally keeps the developmentalist framing as written in the spec: the matched-decade test is on the observed Argentine policy bundle as actually implemented, not on a counterfactual Washington Consensus.

Data

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (constant 2015 USD)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD (PPP, robustness only)

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Stub seeded from a developmentalist school prediction comparing Argentina-Korea growth paths. The matched-decade comparison is descriptive; needs human review of decade-alignment justification.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.