IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·india_services_led_growth_employment_effect

India's post-1991 liberalisation accelerated growth but services-heavy rather than manufacturing-led, leaving labour-intensive employment gains smaller than in East Asian industrial-policy peers.

PARTIALengine/runs/india_services_led_growth_employment_effect

PARTIAL — coef=-0.26, p=0.174 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether services share of income is actually linked to better or worse manufacturing employment share from 1991 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.26, p=0.174 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 9 country or place units from 1991 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Services share of income
  • Manufacturing share of income
What we checked
  • Manufacturing employment share
  • Services employment share
  • Real income per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/india_services_led_growth_employment_effect
1007550250199120072023INDKORTWNCHNMYSTHAVNM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show manufacturing_employment_share across 9 sampled countries over 1991–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for india_services_led_growth_employment_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/india_services_led_growth_employment_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:36Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

India's post-1991 liberalisation accelerated growth but services-heavy rather than manufacturing-led, leaving labour-intensive employment gains smaller than in East Asian industrial-policy peers.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Cross-country panel FE regression of manufacturing employment share on services-share-of-GDP and growth composition over IND vs East Asian peers 1991-2023; supported if IND manufacturing-employment gain trails East-Asia comparator group by >5pp at p<0.10.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
9 countries · 1991 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel (IND vs East Asian industrial-policy peers: KOR, TWN, CHN, MYS, THA, VNM) regressing labour-intensive manufacturing employment on services-share-of-GDP and growth composition with country and year FE.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
manufacturing_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.IND.EMPL.ZStier 2
level
services_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.SRV.EMPL.ZStier 2
level
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
ilostat_employment_by_status
outcome
ilostat:EMP_2EMP_SEX_AGE_NBtier 2
level
services_share_of_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
manufacturing_share_of_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
secondary_education_completion
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.CUAT.UP.ZStier 2
level
capital_formation_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — india_services_led_growth_employment_effect

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.26, p=0.174 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: India's post-1991 liberalisation accelerated growth but services-heavy rather than manufacturing-led, leaving labour-intensive employment gains smaller than in East Asian industrial-policy peers.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Cross-country panel FE regression of manufacturing employment share on services-share-of-GDP and growth composition over IND vs East Asian peers 1991-2023; supported if IND manufacturing-employment gain trails East-Asia comparator group by >5pp at p<0.10.

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.26
  • Std error: 0.1877
  • p-value: 0.174
  • Observations: 84, countries: 6
  • Within R²: -2.86
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.IND.EMPL.ZS → manufacturing_employment_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.SRV.EMPL.ZS → services_employment_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • ilostat:EMP_2EMP_SEX_AGE_NB → ilostat_employment_by_status (outcome, publisher=ilostat, n=10188)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_share_of_gdp (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10330)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_share_of_gdp (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.CUAT.UP.ZS → secondary_education_completion (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2464)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS → capital_formation_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9870)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:36+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from a developmentalist school prediction about India's services-led growth path producing weaker labour-intensive employment gains than East Asian industrial-policy peers. Cross-country composition effects confound interpretation; needs human review of comparator-set construction.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.