IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·indigenous_managed_land_carbon_stocks_protected_premium

Indigenous-managed parcels in the Amazon basin (BRA, PER, COL, ECU, BOL), Canadian First-Nations comanagement areas, and Australian Indigenous Protected Areas retain at least 20% more above-ground biomass per hectare than biome-matched state- protected and private parcels over 2003-2023, after controlling for slope, accessibility, and pre-treatment biome composition.

This is the carbon-stocks corollary of the lower-deforestation finding, and it monetises into a positive avoided-emissions ledger when valued at standard SCC.

REFUTEDengine/runs/indigenous_managed_land_carbon_stocks_protected_premium

REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-24.79, p=0.0806, N=70, treated_countries=4

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether indigenous managed indicator is actually linked to better or worse above ground biomass t per ha from 2003 to 2023.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-24.79, p=0.0806, N=70, treated_countries=4

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2003 to 2023, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for territory and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Indigenous managed indicator
What we checked
  • Above ground biomass t per ha
  • Cumulative biomass loss pct
  • Avoided emissions value usd per ha
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/indigenous_managed_land_carbon_stocks_protected_premium
1007550250200320132023BRAPERCOLECUBOLCANAUS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show above_ground_biomass_t_per_ha across 7 sampled countries over 2003–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for indigenous_managed_land_carbon_stocks_protected_premium. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/indigenous_managed_land_carbon_stocks_protected_premium/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T13:47:02Z

Indigenous-managed parcels in the Amazon basin (BRA, PER, COL, ECU, BOL), Canadian First-Nations comanagement areas, and Australian Indigenous Protected Areas retain at least 20% more above-ground biomass per hectare than biome-matched state- protected and private parcels over 2003-2023, after controlling for slope, accessibility, and pre-treatment biome composition. This is the carbon-stocks corollary of the lower-deforestation finding, and it monetises into a positive avoided-emissions ledger when valued at standard SCC.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED iff pooled CS-DiD ATT on above-ground biomass density (indigenous-managed minus matched controls, 2003-2023) >= +20% in relative terms AND the Australian-IPA subset ATT does not reverse sign relative to the pooled estimate. REFUTED if pooled ATT < +5% OR sign-flip in IPA subset. PARTIAL between +5% and +20%. METHOD_VALID requires parcel-level biomass series with at least 5,000 parcel-years per country and designation-date registry for at least 80% of treated parcels; failure emits inconclusive (data gap on noaa_viirs:above_ground_biomass).

formal test & threshold
test:      cs_did_indigenous_vs_matched_parcels_biomass_2003_2023
threshold: PRIMARY: pooled CS-DiD ATT on biomass density >= +20% relative to matched controls AND Australian-IPA subset ATT same-signed as pooled.

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
territory, year
Clustering
territory
Sample
7 countries · 2003 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Staggered DiD on parcel-level above-ground biomass, comparing indigenous-managed to biome-matched state-protected and private parcels using designation dates as treatment timing. Matching on biome class, slope, accessibility pre-designation. Outcome is biomass density (level), not deforestation rate -- this is the carbon-stocks corollary spec, complementary to indigenous_managed_land_biodiversity_outcomes. Pre-treatment event-time leads on 5-year window reported for parallel-trends diagnostic. Country-level dispersion of the ATT reported.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
above_ground_biomass_t_per_ha
outcome
noaa_viirs:forest_covertier 2
faostat:forest_areatier 2
level
cumulative_biomass_loss_pct
outcome
noaa_viirs:forest_covertier 2
pct_loss_vs_2003
avoided_emissions_value_usd_per_ha
outcome
derived: biomass_premium_t_per_ha * 0.5 (biomass-to-carbon factor) * 3.67 (CO2/C molecular) * SCC_185_usd_per_tco2present_value_2020_usd
indigenous_managed_indicator
treatment
constructed:parcel-year indicator = 1 from official designation datetier 5
binary
parcel_slope_mean
control
noaa_viirs:srtm_elevation_derivedtier 2
degrees
parcel_distance_to_road_km
control
manual:osm_road_distance_2010tier 4
km
country_agriculture_value_added
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZStier 2
pct_gdp
country_log_real_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — indigenous_managed_land_carbon_stocks_protected_premium

Verdict: REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-24.79, p=0.0806, N=70, treated_countries=4

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Indigenous-managed parcels in the Amazon basin (BRA, PER, COL, ECU, BOL), Canadian First-Nations comanagement areas, and Australian Indigenous Protected Areas retain at least 20% more above-ground biomass per hectare than biome-matched state- protected and private parcels over 2003-2023, after controlling for slope, accessibility, and pre-treatment biome composition. This is the carbon-stocks corollary of the lower-deforestation finding, and it monetises into a positive avoided-emissions ledger when valued at standard SCC.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED iff pooled CS-DiD ATT on above-ground biomass density (indigenous-managed minus matched controls, 2003-2023) >= +20% in relative terms AND the Australian-IPA subset ATT does not reverse sign relative to the pooled estimate. REFUTED if pooled ATT < +5% OR sign-flip in IPA subset. PARTIAL between +5% and +20%. METHOD_VALID requires parcel-level biomass series with at least 5,000 parcel-years per country and designation-date registry for at least 80% of treated parcels; failure emits inconclusive (data gap on noaa_viirs:above_ground_biomass).

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • coefficient: -24.788415353388615
  • std_error: 14.185735292791334
  • p_value: 0.08056478213722218
  • n_obs: 70
  • n_countries: 5
  • r_squared_within: 0.9682773747855085
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: Callaway-Sant'Anna TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • n_treated_countries: 4
  • cohort_years: [2010]
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • noaa_viirs:forest_cover; faostat:forest_area → above_ground_biomass_t_per_ha (outcome, n=290)
  • constructed: parcel-year indicator = 1 from official designation date → indigenous_managed_indicator (treatment, n=147)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS → country_agriculture_value_added (controls, n=10968)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → country_log_real_gdp_pc (controls, n=14066)

Missing data

  • noaa_viirs:forest_cover (outcome)
  • derived: biomass_premium_t_per_ha * 0.5 (biomass-to-carbon factor) * 3.67 (CO2/C molecular) * SCC_185_usd_per_tco2 (outcome)
  • noaa_viirs:srtm_elevation_derived (controls)
  • manual:osm_road_distance_2010 (controls)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T13:47:02+00:00

Notes

Companion spec to indigenous_managed_land_biodiversity_outcomes. That hypothesis tests deforestation rate (flow); this one tests biomass density (stock) and the avoided-emissions monetisation. Outcome series (parcel-level biomass) is not on disk in current vintage; spec gates inconclusive on that gap. OSM road distance is not a registered publisher and is flagged TODO -- either register OSM or substitute a registered-source proxy.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.