IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·industrial_policy_export_discipline_conditionality

Industrial policy succeeds when subsidies and cheap credit are conditional on export-discipline performance (Korea, Taiwan, China) and fails when unconditional (Latin American ISI 1960s–1980s, India pre-1991 licence raj).

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/industrial_policy_export_discipline_conditionality

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'export_discipline_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'export_discipline_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 17 country or place units from 1960 to 2000, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Export discipline indicator
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Productivity index
  • Manufacturing value added pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/industrial_policy_export_discipline_conditionality
1007550250196019802000KORTWNCHNJPNSGPMYSTHA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_ppp across 17 sampled countries over 1960–2000.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for industrial_policy_export_discipline_conditionality. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/industrial_policy_export_discipline_conditionality/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:51Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Industrial policy succeeds when subsidies and cheap credit are conditional on export-discipline performance (Korea, Taiwan, China) and fails when unconditional (Latin American ISI 1960s–1980s, India pre-1991 licence raj).

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Panel FE of manufacturing TFP and real GDP growth 1960-2000 on export-discipline conditionality dummy interacted with industrial-policy intensity, country and year FE; falsified if interaction not positive at p<0.10.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
17 countries · 1960 – 2000
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel coding industrial-policy regimes by conditionality (export-discipline vs unconditional ISI). Outcome: manufacturing TFP and real GDP growth 1960-2000. Tests whether the export-discipline treatment indicator is significantly associated with higher productivity.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
export_discipline_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for KOR, TWN, CHN, SGP, JPN (export-disciplined IP); 0 for ISI Latin America + IND pre-1991tier 5
indicator
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — industrial_policy_export_discipline_conditionality

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'export_discipline_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Industrial policy succeeds when subsidies and cheap credit are conditional on export-discipline performance (Korea, Taiwan, China) and fails when unconditional (Latin American ISI 1960s–1980s, India pre-1991 licence raj).
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Panel FE of manufacturing TFP and real GDP growth 1960-2000 on export-discipline conditionality dummy interacted with industrial-policy intensity, country and year FE; falsified if interaction not positive at p<0.10.

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'export_discipline_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → exports_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10904)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for KOR, TWN, CHN, SGP, JPN (export-disciplined IP); 0 for ISI Latin America + IND pre-1991 → export_discipline_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=697)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_initial_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:51+00:00

Notes

Seeded from a developmentalist (Amsden/Wade) claim that East Asian export-discipline conditionality separates successful industrial policy from ISI failure. Coding of "conditionality" is the central judgement call needing human review.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.