IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·industrial_policy_without_exit_discipline_failure

Industrial policy episodes without clear exit rules or export-discipline conditions generate weaker long-run GDP-per-capita and productivity outcomes than episodes with hard performance conditions, in a broad panel of economies during 1970-2020.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/industrial_policy_without_exit_discipline_failure

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:binary_coded_from_historical_programme_descriptions', 'constructed:binary']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:binary_coded_from_historical_programme_descriptions', 'constructed:binary']

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 74 country or place units from 1970 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Industrial policy without exit discipline
  • Industrial policy with exit discipline
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
  • Labour productivity growth
  • Export competitiveness index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/industrial_policy_without_exit_discipline_failure
1007550250197019952020USADEUFRAGBRJPNKORCHN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 74 sampled countries over 1970–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for industrial_policy_without_exit_discipline_failure. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/industrial_policy_without_exit_discipline_failure/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:51Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Industrial policy episodes without clear exit rules or export-discipline conditions generate weaker long-run GDP-per-capita and productivity outcomes than episodes with hard performance conditions, in a broad panel of economies during 1970-2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Falsified if industrial-policy episodes without exit discipline do not show statistically weaker long-run GDP per capita growth and productivity growth than episodes with exit discipline after controlling for initial income, governance, and human capital.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_exit_discipline_comparison
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
74 countries · 1970 – 2020
Evidence type
causal

Panel FE comparing industrial-policy episodes with and without exit discipline. Robustness via matching on initial income, governance, and sector.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
annual_pct
labour_productivity_growth
outcome
pwt:rgdpo_emptier 3
annual_pct
export_competitiveness_index
outcome
owid:economic-complexity-indextier 2
level
industrial_policy_without_exit_discipline
treatment
constructed:binary_coded_from_historical_programme_descriptionstier 5
binary
industrial_policy_with_exit_discipline
treatment
constructed:binarytier 5
binary
initial_gdp_per_capita
control
maddison:mpd2020tier 3
log_level
governance_quality
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
human_capital
control
owid:mean-years-of-schooling-long-run-1870tier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — industrial_policy_without_exit_discipline_failure

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:binary_coded_from_historical_programme_descriptions', 'constructed:binary']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Industrial policy episodes without clear exit rules or export-discipline conditions generate weaker long-run GDP-per-capita and productivity outcomes than episodes with hard performance conditions, in a broad panel of economies during 1970-2020.
  • Falsification rule: Falsified if industrial-policy episodes without exit discipline do not show statistically weaker long-run GDP per capita growth and productivity growth than episodes with exit discipline after controlling for initial income, governance, and human capital.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_exit_discipline_comparison

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:binary_coded_from_historical_programme_descriptions', 'constructed:binary']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • pwt:rgdpo_emp → labour_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=9529)
  • owid:economic-complexity-index → export_competitiveness_index (outcome, publisher=owid, n=5653)
  • maddison:mpd2020 → initial_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • wgi:RL.EST → governance_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:binary_coded_from_historical_programme_descriptions (treatment, name=industrial_policy_without_exit_discipline) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:binary (treatment, name=industrial_policy_with_exit_discipline) — vintage not on disk
  • owid:mean-years-of-schooling-long-run-1870 (controls, name=human_capital) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:51+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Industrial-policy episode coding requires manual historical classification. Key sources: Amsden (1989), Wade (1990), Chang (2002), World Bank PPI database, OECD STI industrial policy database.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.