IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·latam_extra_commodity_cycle_dependence_1990_2024

Across Latin American economies 1990-2024, the cross-country variation in real-GDP growth is materially driven by the global commodity-price cycle, with a measurable "China-supercycle" dividend 2003-2014 and a "post-supercycle penalty" 2014-2019.

The pre-registered claim is (a) panel-FE regression of real-GDP growth on a country-specific terms-of-trade index shows a positive coefficient at p < 0.05 across the panel, AND (b) the cumulative growth gap between commodity-export-heavy LATAM economies and manufacturing-heavy LATAM economies widened during 2003-2014 and narrowed (or reversed) during 2014-2019, AND (c) sovereign-debt spreads (proxied by external debt service share of exports) move inversely with terms of trade. The mechanism is the standard external-finance + tradables-channel transmission of commodity prices to growth.

PARTIALengine/runs/latam_extra_commodity_cycle_dependence_1990_2024

PARTIAL — coef=+0.01623, p=0.291 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.01623, p=0.291 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 19 country or place units from 1990 to 2024, using a panel fe design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Terms of trade
  • China supercycle window
What we checked
  • Real income growth
  • Log income pc constant
  • External debt service share exports
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/latam_extra_commodity_cycle_dependence_1990_2024
1007550250199020072024ARGBOLBRACHLCOLCRIDOM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_growth across 19 sampled countries over 1990–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for latam_extra_commodity_cycle_dependence_1990_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/latam_extra_commodity_cycle_dependence_1990_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:53Z

Across Latin American economies 1990-2024, the cross-country variation in real-GDP growth is materially driven by the global commodity-price cycle, with a measurable "China-supercycle" dividend 2003-2014 and a "post-supercycle penalty" 2014-2019. The pre-registered claim is (a) panel-FE regression of real-GDP growth on a country-specific terms-of-trade index shows a positive coefficient at p < 0.05 across the panel, AND (b) the cumulative growth gap between commodity-export-heavy LATAM economies and manufacturing-heavy LATAM economies widened during 2003-2014 and narrowed (or reversed) during 2014-2019, AND (c) sovereign-debt spreads (proxied by external debt service share of exports) move inversely with terms of trade. The mechanism is the standard external-finance + tradables-channel transmission of commodity prices to growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) terms-of-trade coefficient on real-GDP growth is not positive at p < 0.05 across the panel, OR (b) the cumulative growth gap between commodity-heavy and manufacturing-heavy sub-panels did not widen 2003-2014 and narrow 2014-2019, OR (c) external-debt-service share of exports does not move inversely with terms of trade.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_plus_subpanel_decomposition
threshold: terms_of_trade_coefficient > 0 at p < 0.05 AND commodity_minus_manufacturing_growth_gap(2003-2014) > commodity_minus_manufacturing_growth_gap(2014-2019) AND corr(external_debt_service_share_exports, terms_of_trade) < 0

Method

Template
panel_fe
Clustering
country
Sample
19 countries · 1990 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Primary: panel_fe of real-GDP growth on terms-of-trade with country and year FE. Secondary: cumulative-growth comparison of commodity-export-heavy vs manufacturing-heavy sub-panel across the supercycle and post-supercycle windows.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_constant
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
external_debt_service_share_exports
outcome
world_bank_wdi:DT.TDS.DECT.EX.ZStier 2
level
fiscal_balance_share_gdp
outcome
imf:GGXCNL_NGDPtier 2
level
terms_of_trade
treatment
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
china_supercycle_window
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for 2003-2014tier 5
binary
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
us_gdp_growth
control
fred:GDPC1tier 1
yoy_growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — latam_extra_commodity_cycle_dependence_1990_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.01623, p=0.291 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across Latin American economies 1990-2024, the cross-country variation in real-GDP growth is materially driven by the global commodity-price cycle, with a measurable "China-supercycle" dividend 2003-2014 and a "post-supercycle penalty" 2014-2019. The pre-registered claim is (a) panel-FE regression of real-GDP growth on a country-specific terms-of-trade index shows a positive coefficient at p < 0.05 across the panel, AND (b) the cumulative growth gap between commodity-export-heavy LATAM economies and manufacturing-heavy LATAM economies widened during 2003-2014 and narrowed (or reversed) during 2014-2019, AND (c) sovereign-debt spreads (proxied by external debt service share of exports) move inversely with terms of trade. The mechanism is the standard external-finance + tradables-channel transmission of commodity prices to growth.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) terms-of-trade coefficient on real-GDP growth is not positive at p < 0.05 across the panel, OR (b) the cumulative growth gap between commodity-heavy and manufacturing-heavy sub-panels did not widen 2003-2014 and narrow 2014-2019, OR (c) external-debt-service share of exports does not move inversely with terms of trade.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_plus_subpanel_decomposition

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.01623
  • Std error: 0.01537
  • p-value: 0.291
  • Observations: 622, countries: 19
  • Within R²: 0.00159
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • imf:GGXCNL_NGDP → fiscal_balance_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=imf, n=8848)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6478)
  • constructed: binary = 1 for 2003-2014 → china_supercycle_window (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=665)
  • fred:FEDFUNDS → us_policy_rate (controls, publisher=fred, n=1387)
  • fred:GDPC1 → us_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=fred, n=1520)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:DT.TDS.DECT.EX.ZS (outcome, name=external_debt_service_share_exports) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:53+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Cross-LATAM panel; canonical-pattern test for commodity-cycle transmission.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.