IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·market_freedom_consumption_pc_1970_2024

Higher market-compatible regulatory quality predicts higher real household consumption per person.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/market_freedom_consumption_pc_1970_2024

SUPPORTED — coef=+2050 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0212

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+2050 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0212

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1996 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market or intervention proxy
What we checked
  • Qol or prosperity outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/market_freedom_consumption_pc_1970_2024
1007550250199620102023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show qol_or_prosperity_outcome across 40 sampled countries over 1996–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_freedom_consumption_pc_1970_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_freedom_consumption_pc_1970_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:56Z

Higher market-compatible regulatory quality predicts higher real household consumption per person.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the pre-registered sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_freedom_consumption_pc_1970_2024
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1996 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Local-data first-pass TWFE screen; upgrade to exact treatment/outcome datasets before scoreboard promotion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
qol_or_prosperity_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KDtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
market_or_intervention_proxy
treatment
wgi:RQ.ESTtier 4
level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_freedom_consumption_pc_1970_2024

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+2050 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0212

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher market-compatible regulatory quality predicts higher real household consumption per person.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the pre-registered sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_freedom_consumption_pc_1970_2024

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +2050
  • Std error: 887.4
  • p-value: 0.0212
  • Observations: 773, countries: 31
  • Within R²: -0.0034
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD → qol_or_prosperity_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8501)
  • wgi:RQ.EST → market_or_intervention_proxy (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5169)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:56+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.