IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·market_order_government_spending_private_credit_depth_panel

Across a pre-registered panel of OECD and major emerging-market economies from 1996 to 2023, larger government expenditure shares predict shallower private credit intermediation after country and year fixed effects and basic macro controls.

This tests the crowding-out, tax-expectation, and discretionary-allocation channels without using the Heritage latest-year cross-section as the treatment.

REFUTEDengine/runs/market_order_government_spending_private_credit_depth_panel

REFUTED — coef=+1.688 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0121

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefClear refutation

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether government spending share is actually linked to better or worse private credit depth from 1996 to 2023.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+1.688 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0121

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 53 country or place units from 1996 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Government spending share
What we checked
  • Private credit depth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

5 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/market_order_government_spending_private_credit_depth_panel
1007550250199620102023ARGAUSAUTBELBRACANCHE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show private_credit_depth across 53 sampled countries over 1996–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for market_order_government_spending_private_credit_depth_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/market_order_government_spending_private_credit_depth_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

12 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if REFUTEDschool supportedMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedMarxian Political Economywins if REFUTEDschool supportedMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedModern Monetary Theorywins if REFUTEDschool supportedNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:25Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Across a pre-registered panel of OECD and major emerging-market economies from 1996 to 2023, larger government expenditure shares predict shallower private credit intermediation after country and year fixed effects and basic macro controls. This tests the crowding-out, tax-expectation, and discretionary-allocation channels without using the Heritage latest-year cross-section as the treatment.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the coefficient on government_spending_share is negatively signed at p<0.10 with at least 30 usable observations after listwise deletion. REFUTED if the coefficient is significantly opposite-signed at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_market_order_government_spending_private_credit_depth_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
53 countries · 1996 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Primary test is two-way fixed effects with country-clustered standard errors. The first public verdict should not be treated as causal; it is the registered panel hurdle before any scoreboard interpretation.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
private_credit_depth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZStier 2
level
government_spending_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
population_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROWtier 2
level
trade_openness_control
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — market_order_government_spending_private_credit_depth_panel

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+1.688 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0121

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across a pre-registered panel of OECD and major emerging-market economies from 1996 to 2023, larger government expenditure shares predict shallower private credit intermediation after country and year fixed effects and basic macro controls. This tests the crowding-out, tax-expectation, and discretionary-allocation channels without using the Heritage latest-year cross-section as the treatment.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the coefficient on government_spending_share is negatively signed at p<0.10 with at least 30 usable observations after listwise deletion. REFUTED if the coefficient is significantly opposite-signed at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_market_order_government_spending_private_credit_depth_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +1.688
  • Std error: 0.6715
  • p-value: 0.0121
  • Observations: 1092, countries: 51
  • Within R²: 0.0956
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS → private_credit_depth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9562)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS → government_spending_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=5156)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROW → population_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16672)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_control (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:25+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Do not promote from the earlier Heritage screen directly. This v1 panel spec is the registered second-stage test.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.