IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·milei_reforms_reduce_argentine_inflation

Argentine monthly CPI inflation declines from its late-2023 peak (around 25% month-on-month in December 2023 following the 54% peso devaluation) to below 5% month-on-month within 12 months of Milei's December 2023 inauguration, and below 3% month-on- month within 18 months.

The decline is faster and deeper than in any prior Argentine stabilisation episode since the 1989-1991 Austral/Convertibility period (Menem), and faster than in any of the Latin American stabilisation episodes in the IMF's post- 1990 catalogue that did not adopt dollarisation, controlling for initial inflation level. The pre-registered primary outcome is monthly CPI inflation as published by INDEC.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/milei_reforms_reduce_argentine_inflation

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING - INDEC IPC Nacional vintage missing from local data/vintages; expected indec:148.3_INIVELNAL_DICI_M_26 (indec:148.3_INIVELNAL_DICI_M_26@*.parquet).

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNot enough data

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether milei inauguration indicator is actually linked to better or worse monthly cpi inflation argentina from 2018 to 2027.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. INDEC IPC Nacional vintage missing from local data/vintages; expected indec:148.3_INIVELNAL_DICI_M_26 (indec:148.3_INIVELNAL_DICI_M_26@*.parquet).

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2018 to 2027, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Milei inauguration indicator
  • Milei months since inauguration
What we checked
  • Monthly cpi inflation argentina
  • Monthly cpi inflation annualised
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

1 input datasets, 1 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/milei_reforms_reduce_argentine_inflation
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T19:56:27Z

Argentine monthly CPI inflation declines from its late-2023 peak (around 25% month-on-month in December 2023 following the 54% peso devaluation) to below 5% month-on-month within 12 months of Milei's December 2023 inauguration, and below 3% month-on- month within 18 months. The decline is faster and deeper than in any prior Argentine stabilisation episode since the 1989-1991 Austral/Convertibility period (Menem), and faster than in any of the Latin American stabilisation episodes in the IMF's post- 1990 catalogue that did not adopt dollarisation, controlling for initial inflation level. The pre-registered primary outcome is monthly CPI inflation as published by INDEC.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive, all three must hold for SUPPORTED): (1) median Argentine monthly CPI m/m inflation across the window [t+10, t+14] post-inauguration (Oct 2024 through Feb 2025) <= 5.0%; (2) median monthly CPI m/m inflation across the window [t+16, t+20] (Apr 2025 through Aug 2025) <= 3.0%; (3) months_to_first_sub_5 (first calendar month after t=0 whose m/m INDEC print falls below 5%) <= 10. Verdict aggregation: 3/3 hold = SUPPORTED; 0/3 = refuted; 1-2/3 = partial. METHOD_VALID gate: INDEC IPC Nacional monthly index covers Dec 2022 through Jun 2025 (t-12 through t+18) without gaps; failure emits inconclusive rather than refuted. INFORMATIVE colour: comparison to the IMF post-1990 non-dollarisation LatAm stabilisation catalogue (Brazil Real 1994, Mexico Tesobonos 1995, Peru Fujimori 1990, Uruguay 2002, Bolivia 1985) reported in diagnostics; colours the verdict but does not gate it.

formal test & threshold
test:      event_study_monthly_inflation_thresholds
threshold: PRIMARY: median(mom_pct, t in [10..14]) <= 5.0 AND median(mom_pct, t in [16..20]) <= 3.0 AND months_to_first_sub_5 <= 10

Method

Template
event_study
Clustering
month
Sample
1 countries · 2018 – 2027
Evidence type
causal

Event-study presentation around the December 2023 inauguration date. Primary test: pre-registered magnitude of monthly inflation 12 and 18 months post-event. Secondary: comparison to a peer-Latam synthetic-control-style control panel using Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller weights optimised on 2015-2023 pre-period monthly inflation dynamics. Alternative: local projection (Jordà 2005) on monthly inflation with Milei-era indicator and months-since-event interaction.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
monthly_cpi_inflation_argentina
outcome
imf:PCPIPCHtier 2
monthly_percent_change
monthly_cpi_inflation_annualised
outcome
derived from monthly_cpi_inflation_argentina((1 + m/100)^12 - 1) * 100
milei_inauguration_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 from 2023-12-10 onwards; 0 prior.tier 5
step_indicator
milei_months_since_inauguration
treatment
constructed:integer count of months since December 2023tier 5
integer_count
monthly_cpi_latam_peers
control
countries BRA, CHL, COL, MEX, PER, URYmonthly_percent_change
commodity_price_index
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
monthly_log_change
real_effective_exchange_rate_argentina
control
bis:WS_EERtier 2
monthly_log_change

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Milei reforms reduce Argentine inflation

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING - INDEC IPC Nacional vintage missing from local data/vintages; expected indec:148.3_INIVELNAL_DICI_M_26 (indec:148.3_INIVELNAL_DICI_M_26@*.parquet).

Data Gate

  • Required local vintage: data/vintages/indec/148.3_INIVELNAL_DICI_M_26@*.parquet.
  • The current workspace does not contain an indec vintage directory or matching INDEC IPC file.
  • The prior supported result cannot be reproduced in this lane without the registered INDEC input.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data-gated: IMF IFS monthly CPI for ARG + LatAm peers must land on disk before run. If IFS coverage is delayed, the INDEC IPC series is a clean substitute via manual drop (Argentina-specific) combined with peer-country monthly CPI from each central bank via OWID / IMF mirrors. Entry #10 in mega-spec D.1 pre-registration list (monetary topic). First-commit timestamp is the authoritative pre- registration date for v1.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.