Pre-registration
Sectors dominated by national-champion firms show lower 20-year total-factor- productivity growth than comparable competitive sectors after the initial scale-up phase, in a broad panel of OECD and emerging-market economies during 1980-2020.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
Falsified if sectors with national-champion concentration (top-3 revenue share above 60%) do not show statistically lower TFP growth than competitive sectors (top-3 share below 40%) over 20-year windows after controlling for R&D, sector size, and trade openness.
formal test & threshold
test: panel_fe_champion_concentration_on_tfp threshold: [object Object]
Method
- Template
panel_fe- Fixed effects
country, sector, year- Clustering
country_sector- Sample
- 20 countries · 1980 – 2020
- Evidence type
- associational
Sector-country panel FE with country, sector, and year fixed effects. Cluster at country-sector level. Robustness via IV using EU state-aid court rulings as instrument.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
total_factor_productivity_growth outcome | pwt:rtfpnatier 3 | annual_pct |
labour_productivity_growth outcome | oecd_stan:gdp_per_hour_workedtier 5 | annual_pct |
national_champion_concentration treatment | constructed:top_3_firm_revenue_share_by_sectortier 5 | level_pct |
state_aid_intensity treatment | constructed:oecd_sti_or_national_state_aid_databasetier 5 | level_pct_gdp |
sector_size control | constructed:sector_va_sharetier 5 | level_pct |
r_and_d_spending control | oecd_stan:business_rd_expendituretier 5 | level_pct_va |
trade_openness control | world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2 | level |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card — national_champions_long_run_productivity_drag
Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:top_3_firm_revenue_share_by_sector', 'constructed:oecd_sti_or_national_state_aid_database']
Pre-registration
- Claim: Sectors dominated by national-champion firms show lower 20-year total-factor- productivity growth than comparable competitive sectors after the initial scale-up phase, in a broad panel of OECD and emerging-market economies during 1980-2020.
- Falsification rule: Falsified if sectors with national-champion concentration (top-3 revenue share above 60%) do not show statistically lower TFP growth than competitive sectors (top-3 share below 40%) over 20-year windows after controlling for R&D, sector size, and trade openness.
- Falsification test: panel_fe_champion_concentration_on_tfp
Estimate
- Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:top_3_firm_revenue_share_by_sector', 'constructed:oecd_sti_or_national_state_aid_database']
Variables resolved
pwt:rtfpna→ total_factor_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS→ trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
Variables missing data
oecd_stan:gdp_per_hour_worked(outcome, name=labour_productivity_growth) — vintage not on diskconstructed:top_3_firm_revenue_share_by_sector(treatment, name=national_champion_concentration) — vintage not on diskconstructed:oecd_sti_or_national_state_aid_database(treatment, name=state_aid_intensity) — vintage not on diskconstructed:sector_va_share(controls, name=sector_size) — vintage not on diskoecd_stan:business_rd_expenditure(controls, name=r_and_d_spending) — vintage not on disk
Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:58+00:00
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Sector-level concentration data from OECD STAN, Orbis, or national competition authorities. PWT TFP available at country level; sector-level TFP requires EU KLEMS or OECD STAN.