IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·state_owned_enterprise_share_growth_plateau

Higher state-owned enterprise shares predict slower long-run labour-productivity growth once basic infrastructure, literacy, and initial income gaps are controlled in a broad panel of advanced and emerging economies during 1980-2020.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/state_owned_enterprise_share_growth_plateau

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:soe_employment_or_va_share']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:soe_employment_or_va_share']

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 74 country or place units from 1980 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • State-owned firms share
What we checked
  • Labour productivity growth
  • Total factor productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/state_owned_enterprise_share_growth_plateau
1007550250198020002020USADEUFRAGBRJPNKORCHN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show labour_productivity_growth across 74 sampled countries over 1980–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for state_owned_enterprise_share_growth_plateau. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/state_owned_enterprise_share_growth_plateau/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:02Z

Higher state-owned enterprise shares predict slower long-run labour-productivity growth once basic infrastructure, literacy, and initial income gaps are controlled in a broad panel of advanced and emerging economies during 1980-2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Falsified if higher SOE shares do not show a statistically significant negative association with labour-productivity growth after controlling for infrastructure, literacy, initial income, and natural resources.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_soe_share_on_productivity
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
74 countries · 1980 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Panel FE with country and year fixed effects. Robustness via IV using privatisation waves (mass privatisation programmes, IPO waves) as instrument.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
labour_productivity_growth
outcome
pwt:rgdpo_emptier 3
annual_pct
total_factor_productivity_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
annual_pct
soe_share
treatment
constructed:soe_employment_or_va_sharetier 5
level_pct
infrastructure_index
control
world_bank_wdi:IT.NET.BBND.P2tier 2
level
literacy_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.ADT.LITR.ZStier 2
level_pct
initial_gdp_per_capita
control
maddison:mpd2020tier 3
log_level
natural_resource_rents
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZStier 2
level_pct

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — state_owned_enterprise_share_growth_plateau

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:soe_employment_or_va_share']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher state-owned enterprise shares predict slower long-run labour-productivity growth once basic infrastructure, literacy, and initial income gaps are controlled in a broad panel of advanced and emerging economies during 1980-2020.
  • Falsification rule: Falsified if higher SOE shares do not show a statistically significant negative association with labour-productivity growth after controlling for infrastructure, literacy, initial income, and natural resources.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_soe_share_on_productivity

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:soe_employment_or_va_share']

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rgdpo_emp → labour_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=9529)
  • pwt:rtfpna → total_factor_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.ADT.LITR.ZS → literacy_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2704)
  • maddison:mpd2020 → initial_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS → natural_resource_rents (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=11504)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:soe_employment_or_va_share (treatment, name=soe_share) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi:IT.NET.BBND.P2 (controls, name=infrastructure_index) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:02+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

SOE share data from OECD SOE database, Kowalski et al. (2013), or national statistical offices. Coverage is sparse for low-income countries pre-2000.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.