IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·state_credit_allocation_zombie_firm_persistence

Persistent state-directed credit allocation predicts higher zombie-firm shares and lower total-factor-productivity growth over 15-30 year windows in a broad panel of advanced and emerging economies.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/state_credit_allocation_zombie_firm_persistence

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:state_owned_bank_credit_to_private_sector_pct_gdp']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:state_owned_bank_credit_to_private_sector_pct_gdp']

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 74 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • State credit share
What we checked
  • Zombie firm share
  • Total factor productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/state_credit_allocation_zombie_firm_persistence
1007550250199020052020USADEUFRAGBRJPNKORCHN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show zombie_firm_share across 74 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for state_credit_allocation_zombie_firm_persistence. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/state_credit_allocation_zombie_firm_persistence/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:02Z

Persistent state-directed credit allocation predicts higher zombie-firm shares and lower total-factor-productivity growth over 15-30 year windows in a broad panel of advanced and emerging economies.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Falsified if state credit share does not show a statistically significant positive association with zombie-firm share and a negative association with TFP growth over 15-30 year windows after controlling for private credit depth, institutional quality, and GDP growth.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_state_credit_on_zombies_and_tfp
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
74 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Country-year panel FE with country and year fixed effects. Robustness via system GMM to address persistence in zombie shares and endogeneity of credit allocation.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
zombie_firm_share
outcome
constructed:share_of_firms_with_interest_coverage_lt_1_for_3_yearstier 5
level_pct
total_factor_productivity_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
annual_pct
state_credit_share
treatment
constructed:state_owned_bank_credit_to_private_sector_pct_gdptier 5
level_pct
private_credit_depth
control
world_bank_wdi:GFDD.DI.14tier 2
level_pct_gdp
institutional_quality
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
annual_pct

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — state_credit_allocation_zombie_firm_persistence

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:state_owned_bank_credit_to_private_sector_pct_gdp']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Persistent state-directed credit allocation predicts higher zombie-firm shares and lower total-factor-productivity growth over 15-30 year windows in a broad panel of advanced and emerging economies.
  • Falsification rule: Falsified if state credit share does not show a statistically significant positive association with zombie-firm share and a negative association with TFP growth over 15-30 year windows after controlling for private credit depth, institutional quality, and GDP growth.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_state_credit_on_zombies_and_tfp

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:state_owned_bank_credit_to_private_sector_pct_gdp']

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → total_factor_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:GFDD.DI.14 → private_credit_depth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6564)
  • wgi:RL.EST → institutional_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:share_of_firms_with_interest_coverage_lt_1_for_3_years (outcome, name=zombie_firm_share) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:state_owned_bank_credit_to_private_sector_pct_gdp (treatment, name=state_credit_share) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:02+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Zombie-firm data requires Orbis/Amadeus or national business registries. State credit share from World Bank GFDD, CBRC, or national central banks.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.