IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·net_migration_revealed_preference_market_institutions

Net migration flows per 1,000 population across countries 1990-2020 are positively associated with stronger market institutions (higher Economic Freedom of the World composite, lower OECD PMR product-market regulation, and stronger rule of law), after controlling for per-capita income level, common language networks, and proximity to armed conflict.

The claim is that revealed preference in migration patterns favors institutional environments with secure property rights and open markets over state-directed alternatives at comparable income levels.

REFUTEDengine/runs/net_migration_revealed_preference_market_institutions

REFUTED — coef=-1.281e+05 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00405

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-1.281e+05 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00405

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 45 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Economic freedom composite
  • Product market regulation
What we checked
  • Net migration rate per 1000
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

7 input datasets, 1 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/net_migration_revealed_preference_market_institutions
1007550250199020052020USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show net_migration_rate_per_1000 across 45 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for net_migration_revealed_preference_market_institutions. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/net_migration_revealed_preference_market_institutions/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:45Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Net migration flows per 1,000 population across countries 1990-2020 are positively associated with stronger market institutions (higher Economic Freedom of the World composite, lower OECD PMR product-market regulation, and stronger rule of law), after controlling for per-capita income level, common language networks, and proximity to armed conflict. The claim is that revealed preference in migration patterns favors institutional environments with secure property rights and open markets over state-directed alternatives at comparable income levels.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the pooled coefficient on market-institution proxies (EFW, PMR, or rule of law) is negative and statistically significant (p < 0.10) in a country- and year-fixed-effects panel with country-clustered standard errors, or if the coefficient is positive but smaller than one standard error after controlling for income, language, and conflict.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_net_migration_on_market_institutions_1990_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
45 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
net_migration_rate_per_1000
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.NETMtier 2
level
economic_freedom_composite
treatment
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
level
product_market_regulation
treatment
oecd_pmr:overall_pmrtier 4
level
rule_of_law
treatment
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
log_gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
common_language_migration_index
control
constructed:migration_language_proxies_melitz_houdetier 5
level
conflict_proximity_score
control
ucdp:gedtier 3
level
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — net_migration_revealed_preference_market_institutions

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-1.281e+05 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00405

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Net migration flows per 1,000 population across countries 1990-2020 are positively associated with stronger market institutions (higher Economic Freedom of the World composite, lower OECD PMR product-market regulation, and stronger rule of law), after controlling for per-capita income level, common language networks, and proximity to armed conflict. The claim is that revealed preference in migration patterns favors institutional environments with secure property rights and open markets over state-directed alternatives at comparable income levels.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the pooled coefficient on market-institution proxies (EFW, PMR, or rule of law) is negative and statistically significant (p < 0.10) in a country- and year-fixed-effects panel with country-clustered standard errors, or if the coefficient is positive but smaller than one standard error after controlling for income, language, and conflict.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_net_migration_on_market_institutions_1990_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -1.281e+05
  • Std error: 4.293e+04
  • p-value: 0.00405
  • Observations: 99, countries: 11
  • Within R²: 0.215
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.NETM → net_migration_rate_per_1000 (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=17226)
  • fraser_efw:summary_index → economic_freedom_composite (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • oecd_pmr:overall_pmr → product_market_regulation (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • ucdp:ged; constructed → conflict_proximity_score (controls, publisher=ucdp, n=1978)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:migration_language_proxies_melitz_houde (controls, name=common_language_migration_index) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:45+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.