IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effect

Lula third-term's Nova Indústria Brasil 2024 industrial-policy package, conditioned on export performance and technology-diffusion metrics, produces measurable sectoral capability gains (semiconductors, green hydrogen, health-industrial complex) by 2030 — replicating the East Asian export-discipline conditionality pattern rather than the earlier Latin American import-substitution-industrialisation pattern.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effect

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 2018 to 2030, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Nova industria post 2024 indicator
  • Export discipline enforcement dummy
What we checked
  • Log manufacturing value added
  • High tech export share
  • Patent stock log
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effect
1007550250201820242030BRAMEXARGCHLCOLKOR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_manufacturing_value_added across 6 sampled countries over 2018–2030.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T13:28:25Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Lula third-term's Nova Indústria Brasil 2024 industrial-policy package, conditioned on export performance and technology-diffusion metrics, produces measurable sectoral capability gains (semiconductors, green hydrogen, health-industrial complex) by 2030 — replicating the East Asian export-discipline conditionality pattern rather than the earlier Latin American import-substitution-industrialisation pattern.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 5 pre-registered capability indicators (sectoral export share, patent stock, FDI inward in target sectors, domestic value-added share, employment in target sectors) show gains exceeding pre-2023 trend by at least 1 standard deviation by 2030, conditional on export-performance metrics being enforced. REFUTED if fewer than 2 indicators meet the threshold or if non-enforcement reduces the effect to zero.

formal test & threshold
test:      Multi-metric pattern check by 2030 across 5 capability indicators (sector export share, patent stock, FDI, domestic VA, employment); >=3 above pre-2023 trend by >=1 SD with export discipline enforced supports.

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Sample
6 countries · 2018 – 2030
Evidence type
associational

Pre-registered multi-metric pattern check across 5 capability indicators (sectoral export share, patent stock, FDI in target sectors, domestic VA share, employment in target sectors) by 2030. Hypothesis SUPPORTED if >=3 of 5 indicators show >=1 SD gain over pre-2023 trend, conditional on export-discipline enforcement. Caveat: forward-looking claim with 2030 horizon — primary spec runs incomplete until then. Comparison to KOR replicates East Asian benchmark; comparison to MEX/ARG/CHL/COL benchmarks against ISI baseline.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_manufacturing_value_added
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KDtier 2
log
high_tech_export_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level
patent_stock_log
outcome
wipo:patent_applicationstier 2
log
fdi_inflows_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
employment_target_sectors
outcome
ipeadata:emprego_industriatier 2
log
nova_industria_post_2024_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for BRA from 2024 (Nova Indústria Brasil enactment); 0 for comparator pool.tier 5
indicator
export_discipline_enforcement_dummy
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for BRA target sectors with credible export-performance conditionality enforcement; 0 for non-enforced sectier 5
indicator
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — nova_industria_brasil_export_discipline_pattern_effect

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING

Reason: no canonical metrics available to evaluate

Pre-registered rule: SUPPORT if >= 7 of 0 metrics met; REFUTE if <= 3 met (impossible to hit support).

Counts: 0 MET · 0 NOT_MET · 0 PENDING_DATA · 0 PENDING_EVAL

Primary country: BRA

Metric-by-metric

| # | Metric | Status | Observed | Threshold | Notes | |---|---|:---:|---:|---|---|

Claim

Lula third-term's Nova Indústria Brasil 2024 industrial-policy package, conditioned on export performance and technology-diffusion metrics, produces measurable sectoral capability gains (semiconductors, green hydrogen, health-industrial complex) by 2030 — replicating the East Asian export-discipline conditionality pattern rather than the earlier Latin American import-substitution-industrialisation pattern.

Interpretation

Verdict is INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — 0 metric(s) cannot be evaluated because the underlying data source is not yet in the vintages pipeline, and 0 metric(s) have data but a threshold expression the auto-evaluator does not recognise (complex conditions, discrete event counts, cross-country gaps). Close these gaps then re-run.

Steelman live concerns

See `` for the strongest opposing arguments. Canonical-case multi-metric evidence is a pattern match, not a causal identification — the result card should be read as 'outcome trajectory matches the predicted pattern to degree X' rather than 'policy P caused the outcome'.

Provenance

Vintages pinned in manifest.yaml. Full per-metric diagnostics in diagnostics.json. Machine-readable results in metric_results.parquet.

Notes

Origin is Phase 4E coverage-gap split to give the Brazil 2024 Nova Indústria episode its own hypothesis distinct from US CHIPS/IRA. Forward-looking claim with 2030 test window.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.