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Hypotheses·growth·nz_rogernomics_productivity_effect

NZ Rogernomics 1984–1993 liberalisation (tariff removal, SOE corporatisation, financial-market liberalisation) produced productivity acceleration and real-income gains over 1990s–2000s relative to pre-reform trend.

REFUTEDengine/runs/nz_rogernomics_productivity_effect

refuted — NZ synthetic-control log-TFP gap mean over 1995-2005 = -3.80% (<= 0); informative log GDP-pc gap = -22.70%. Productivity acceleration claim not supported by the data: NZ TFP sits at or below its synthetic counterfactual built from 8 donor advanced economies.

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. NZ synthetic-control log-TFP gap mean over 1995-2005 = -3.80% (<= 0); informative log GDP-pc gap = -22.70%.

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 9 country or place units from 1970 to 2005, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Rogernomics treated
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Productivity index
  • Trade openness
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/nz_rogernomics_productivity_effect
Loading chart…

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z

NZ Rogernomics 1984–1993 liberalisation (tariff removal, SOE corporatisation, financial-market liberalisation) produced productivity acceleration and real-income gains over 1990s–2000s relative to pre-reform trend.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): the dispositive thresholds for this hypothesis are encoded directly in engine/runs/nz_rogernomics_productivity_effect/replication.py and pinned in methodology_note. The auto-grader's verdict in diagnostics.json corresponds to those dispositive checks, not to the legacy boilerplate. See methodology_note for the exact pre-registered thresholds. Headline: PRIMARY (dispositive): mean synthetic-control gap on log TFP (PWT

formal test & threshold
test:      Synth-DID with NZL treated 1984 vs donor pool {AUS,IRL,FIN,DNK,SWE,NOR,GBR,CAN}; outcome real GDP per capita and TFP 1970-2005; falsified if synth gap not positive at p<0.10 by 1995 or magnitude below 5%.

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
none
Sample
9 countries · 1970 – 2005
Evidence type
associational

NZ treated post-1984; donor pool of comparable advanced economies (AUS, IRL, FIN, DNK, SWE) for the 1984-2005 window. Outcomes: TFP growth, real GDP per capita, real-income gains. Tests whether Rogernomics liberalisation produced above-counterfactual productivity.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
trade_openness
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
rogernomics_treated
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for NZL, year >= 1984 (Lange-Douglas reforms)tier 5
indicator
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — NZ Rogernomics 1984 productivity effect

Verdict: refuted — NZ synthetic-control log-TFP gap mean over 1995-2005 = -3.80% (<= 0); informative log GDP-pc gap = -22.70%. Productivity acceleration claim not supported by the data: NZ TFP sits at or below its synthetic counterfactual built from 8 donor advanced economies.

Summary

  • Treated unit: NZL, treatment year 1984 (Lange-Douglas reforms).
  • Donor pool: AUS, IRL, FIN, DNK, SWE, NOR, GBR, CAN.
  • Outcome (PRIMARY, dispositive): log TFP (PWT rtfpna).
  • Outcome (INFORMATIVE, non-gating): log real GDP per capita (PWT rgdpna / pop).
  • Post-treatment evaluation window: 1995-2005.

PRIMARY result

  • Mean synthetic-control gap on log TFP, 1995-2005: -3.80% (SUPPORTED threshold: ≥ +5%; REFUTED threshold: ≤ 0%).
  • Pre-treatment fit RMSE on log TFP: 0.0497 (method-valid gate: ≤ 0.05).
  • Donors with full 1970-2005 coverage: 8 (method-valid gate: ≥ 4).
  • Donor weights: AUS=0.36, IRL=0.00, FIN=0.00, DNK=0.00, SWE=0.00, NOR=0.00, GBR=0.00, CAN=0.64.

INFORMATIVE result (real-income channel)

  • Mean synthetic-control gap on log real GDP per capita, 1995-2005: -22.70% (does not gate the verdict).

Method

Classic Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller (2010) synthetic-control estimator, donor weights chosen by SLSQP over the unit simplex to minimise pre-treatment squared loss. The spec calls for synth_did; the simpler ADH estimator is what the framework currently implements consistently across runs (see engine/runs/estonia_market_reform_post_soviet_growth_1991_2007/).

Method-validity gates (per HYPOTHESIS_FRAMEWORK_AUDIT.md §E2): pre-fit RMSE ≤ 0.05 and donor coverage ≥ 4. A failure on either gate emits inconclusive, never refuted.

Data

  • pwt:rtfpna (TFP at constant national prices)
  • pwt:rgdpna (real GDP at constant national prices)
  • pwt:pop (population)

Vintages pinned in manifest.yaml. Reproduce with python3 replication.py.

Notes

Seeded from a classical-liberal claim that Lange-Douglas Rogernomics liberalisation 1984-1993 (tariff removal, SOE corporatisation, financial- market liberalisation) produced productivity acceleration and real-income gains. Synth-DID against advanced-economy donor pool; human review needed because NZ's productivity record is contested.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.