IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·occupational_licensing_productivity_drag

Excessive occupational-licensing scope (US state-level variation) reduces inter-state labour mobility and sector productivity relative to light-licensing alternatives.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/occupational_licensing_productivity_drag

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['derived:carpenter_knepper_licensing_index']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Do children have a better shot at moving up when schools, housing, and neighborhoods give them access to opportunity, rather than simply because a country redistributes more income?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['derived:carpenter_knepper_licensing_index']

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1980 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for state and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Occupational licensing scope index
What we checked
  • State labour productivity per hour
  • Inter state migration rate
  • State employment in licensed occupations
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/occupational_licensing_productivity_drag
1007550250198020022023USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show state_labour_productivity_per_hour across 1 sampled countries over 1980–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for occupational_licensing_productivity_drag. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/occupational_licensing_productivity_drag/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:49:57Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Excessive occupational-licensing scope (US state-level variation) reduces inter-state labour mobility and sector productivity relative to light-licensing alternatives.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      US state-year panel FE (1980-2023) of inter-state migration rate and sector TFP on licensing-scope index (Kleiner-Krueger / Carpenter-Knepper); state+year FE, state-clustered SEs. Refute if coefficient sign-flipped at p<0.10.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
state, year
Clustering
state
Sample
1 countries · 1980 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

US state-year panel regressing inter-state mobility and sector productivity on occupational-licensing scope (Kleiner-Krueger series; Carpenter-Knepper updates). State and year FE; clustering by state.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
state_labour_productivity_per_hour
outcome
bls:CES0500000003tier 1
log_yoy
inter_state_migration_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.TOTLtier 2
ratio
state_employment_in_licensed_occupations
outcome
bls:OEUM000000000000000001tier 1
share
occupational_licensing_scope_index
treatment
derived:carpenter_knepper_licensing_indextier 4
level
state_unemployment_rate
control
bls:LAUST010000000000003tier 1
level
state_minimum_wage
control
fred:STTMINWGCAtier 1
log
log_state_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — occupational_licensing_productivity_drag

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['derived:carpenter_knepper_licensing_index']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Excessive occupational-licensing scope (US state-level variation) reduces inter-state labour mobility and sector productivity relative to light-licensing alternatives.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: US state-year panel FE (1980-2023) of inter-state migration rate and sector TFP on licensing-scope index (Kleiner-Krueger / Carpenter-Knepper); state+year FE, state-clustered SEs. Refute if coefficient sign-flipped at p<0.10.

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['derived:carpenter_knepper_licensing_index']

Variables resolved

  • bls:CES0500000003 → state_labour_productivity_per_hour (outcome, publisher=bls, n=3)
  • world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.TOTL → inter_state_migration_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2072)
  • bls:LAUST010000000000003 → state_unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=bls, n=5)
  • fred:STTMINWGCA → state_minimum_wage (controls, publisher=fred, n=59)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_state_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)

Variables missing data

  • bls:OEUM000000000000000001 (outcome, name=state_employment_in_licensed_occupations) — vintage not on disk
  • derived:carpenter_knepper_licensing_index (treatment, name=occupational_licensing_scope_index) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:49:57+00:00

Notes

Maps the classical-liberal school's licensing-as-mobility-tax claim to a US state-year panel. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off. v2 wiring: Added BLS OEWS state-level wage panel and LAU state unemployment panel. Kleiner-Krueger/Carpenter-Knepper licensing index still needs manual coding (data/manual/). Can now run state-year FE panel with real data replacing stop-gap proxies.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.