IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·oecd_low_education_unemployment_minimum_wage_bite

Higher OECD statutory minimum-wage bite ratios are associated with higher low-education unemployment.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/oecd_low_education_unemployment_minimum_wage_bite

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

When minimum wages rise high relative to normal local pay, do lower-skill workers keep their jobs, or does hiring fall at the margin?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 28 country or place units from 1985 to 2019, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Minimum wage bite
What we checked
  • Low education unemployment
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/oecd_low_education_unemployment_minimum_wage_bite
1007550250198520022019AUSBELCANCHLCOLCRICZE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show low_education_unemployment across 28 sampled countries over 1985–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for oecd_low_education_unemployment_minimum_wage_bite. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/oecd_low_education_unemployment_minimum_wage_bite/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call⇄

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:50Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher OECD statutory minimum-wage bite ratios are associated with higher low-education unemployment.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if `minimum_wage_bite` clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_oecd_low_education_unemployment_minimum_wage_bite
threshold: {"coef_min": 0.03, "min_observations": 250, "min_units": 15, "p_max": 0.1, "raw_diff_min": 0.4}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
28 countries · 1985 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
low_education_unemployment
outcome
local landed vintagesee runner
minimum_wage_bite
treatment
local landed vintagesee runner
epl
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth
gdp_growth
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — oecd_low_education_unemployment_minimum_wage_bite

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher OECD statutory minimum-wage bite ratios are associated with higher low-education unemployment.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if minimum_wage_bite clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_oecd_low_education_unemployment_minimum_wage_bite

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • local landed vintage (outcome, name=low_education_unemployment) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (treatment, name=minimum_wage_bite) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=epl) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=gdp_growth) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:50+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by A4 Batch 07-09 runner; reproducible via engine/runs/oecd_low_education_unemployment_minimum_wage_bite/replication.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.