IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·oecd_pdb_public_sector_share_productivity_drag

A larger public-administration, education, and health GVA share predicts slower subsequent total-economy labour-productivity growth.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/oecd_pdb_public_sector_share_productivity_drag

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB,2.0']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB,2.0']

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 31 country or place units from 1971 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Public gva share lag
What we checked
  • Lp growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/oecd_pdb_public_sector_share_productivity_drag
1007550250197119982025AUSAUTBELCANCHECZEDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show lp_growth across 31 sampled countries over 1971–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for oecd_pdb_public_sector_share_productivity_drag. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/oecd_pdb_public_sector_share_productivity_drag/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

4 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit c48dfd6 · 2026-05-13T10:43:00Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:58Z

A larger public-administration, education, and health GVA share predicts slower subsequent total-economy labour-productivity growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Estimate `lp_growth ~ public_gva_share_lag + C(country) + C(year)` on the landed OECD PDB vintage; expected sign: negative. SUPPORTED requires the pre-registered sign at p<0.10 or the named dominance criterion; otherwise the result is partial or weak.

formal test & threshold
test:      oecd_pdb_batch03_oecd_pdb_public_sector_share_productivity_drag
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign, except dominance tests compare the named contribution magnitudes

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
31 countries · 1971 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Local first-pass throughput screen; upgrade robustness before scoreboard conversion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
lp_growth
outcome
oecd:OECD.SDD.TPStier 2
growth_or_level_as_named
public_gva_share_lag
treatment
oecd:OECD.SDD.TPStier 2
lagged_level_or_change_as_named

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — oecd_pdb_public_sector_share_productivity_drag

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB,2.0']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: A larger public-administration, education, and health GVA share predicts slower subsequent total-economy labour-productivity growth.
  • Falsification rule: Estimate lp_growth ~ public_gva_share_lag + C(country) + C(year) on the landed OECD PDB vintage; expected sign: negative. SUPPORTED requires the pre-registered sign at p<0.10 or the named dominance criterion; otherwise the result is partial or weak.
  • Falsification test: oecd_pdb_batch03_oecd_pdb_public_sector_share_productivity_drag

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB,2.0']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • oecd:OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB,2.0 (outcome, name=lp_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd:OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB,2.0 (treatment, name=public_gva_share_lag) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:58+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.