IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·oecd_socx_public_social_spending_employment_tradeoff

Higher public social spending shares are associated with lower employment rates once country and year effects are absorbed.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/oecd_socx_public_social_spending_employment_tradeoff

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether socx public income is actually linked to better or worse employment rate from 1991 to 2024.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 42 country or place units from 1991 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Socx public income
What we checked
  • Employment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/oecd_socx_public_social_spending_employment_tradeoff
1007550250199120082024AUSAUTBELBGRCANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show employment_rate across 42 sampled countries over 1991–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for oecd_socx_public_social_spending_employment_tradeoff. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/oecd_socx_public_social_spending_employment_tradeoff/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:53Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher public social spending shares are associated with lower employment rates once country and year effects are absorbed.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if `socx_public_gdp` clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_oecd_socx_public_social_spending_employment_tradeoff
threshold: {"coef_max": -0.08, "min_observations": 350, "min_units": 20, "p_max": 0.1, "raw_diff_max": -0.5}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
42 countries · 1991 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
employment_rate
outcome
local landed vintagesee runner
socx_public_gdp
treatment
local landed vintagesee runner
gdp_growth
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — oecd_socx_public_social_spending_employment_tradeoff

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher public social spending shares are associated with lower employment rates once country and year effects are absorbed.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if socx_public_gdp clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_oecd_socx_public_social_spending_employment_tradeoff

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • local landed vintage (outcome, name=employment_rate) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (treatment, name=socx_public_gdp) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=gdp_growth) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:53+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by A4 Batch 07-09 runner; reproducible via engine/runs/oecd_socx_public_social_spending_employment_tradeoff/replication.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.