IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·paraguay_long_stable_growth_2003_2024

Paraguay 2003-2024 quietly delivered cumulative log real-GDP per capita growth in the top half of Latin America, with low inflation (mean below 5% annualised), stable fiscal balance, and durable currency, despite minimal headline reform attention.

The pre-registered claim is that Paraguay's combination of (a) low effective tax rates and a tax-haven-adjacent regime, (b) abundant hydroelectricity from Itaipú and Yacyretá producing the cheapest-in-LATAM industrial electricity, (c) soybean and beef export specialisation, and (d) Mercosur trade integration produced a structurally stable growth path. The mechanism is a low-friction small-economy model. Primary statistics: log_gdp_pc_constant cumulative growth 2003-2024 (PRY) exceeds the LATAM median by at least 0.10 log-points, AND mean cpi_inflation_yoy is below 5%, AND the within-country standard deviation of real-GDP growth (a volatility metric) does not exceed the regional median.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/paraguay_long_stable_growth_2003_2024

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 2003 to 2024, using a panel fe design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Log income pc constant
  • Cpi inflation yoy
  • Fiscal balance share income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/paraguay_long_stable_growth_2003_2024
1007550250200320142024PRYBOLURYECUPERARGBRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_constant across 8 sampled countries over 2003–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for paraguay_long_stable_growth_2003_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/paraguay_long_stable_growth_2003_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:59Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Paraguay 2003-2024 quietly delivered cumulative log real-GDP per capita growth in the top half of Latin America, with low inflation (mean below 5% annualised), stable fiscal balance, and durable currency, despite minimal headline reform attention. The pre-registered claim is that Paraguay's combination of (a) low effective tax rates and a tax-haven-adjacent regime, (b) abundant hydroelectricity from Itaipú and Yacyretá producing the cheapest-in-LATAM industrial electricity, (c) soybean and beef export specialisation, and (d) Mercosur trade integration produced a structurally stable growth path. The mechanism is a low-friction small-economy model. Primary statistics: log_gdp_pc_constant cumulative growth 2003-2024 (PRY) exceeds the LATAM median by at least 0.10 log-points, AND mean cpi_inflation_yoy is below 5%, AND the within-country standard deviation of real-GDP growth (a volatility metric) does not exceed the regional median.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc 2003-2024 (PRY minus LATAM median) is < 0.10, OR (b) mean cpi_inflation_yoy (PRY, 2003-2024) >= 5%, OR (c) within-PRY 5-year-rolling SD of real-GDP growth exceeds the LATAM median.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_plus_volatility_metric
threshold: cumulative_log_gdp_pc(PRY, 2003-2024) - cumulative_log_gdp_pc(LATAM_median, 2003-2024) >= 0.10 AND mean_cpi_inflation_yoy(PRY, 2003-2024) < 5 AND within_PRY_SD_gdp_growth(2003-2024) <= median_LATAM_within_SD_gdp_growth(2003-2024)

Method

Template
panel_fe
Clustering
country
Sample
8 countries · 2003 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Primary: panel_fe of log_gdp_pc on country and year FE plus Paraguay-indicator interaction. Secondary: descriptive ranking of cumulative log GDP-pc growth and macro-volatility metrics.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_constant
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
fiscal_balance_share_gdp
outcome
imf:GGXCNL_NGDPtier 2
level
real_gdp_growth_volatility
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
rolling_5yr_sd
soybean_price
control
fred:PSOYBUSDMtier 1
log_level
beef_price
control
fred:PBEEFUSDMtier 1
log_level
brazil_gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
argentina_gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — paraguay_long_stable_growth_2003_2024

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Paraguay 2003-2024 quietly delivered cumulative log real-GDP per capita growth in the top half of Latin America, with low inflation (mean below 5% annualised), stable fiscal balance, and durable currency, despite minimal headline reform attention. The pre-registered claim is that Paraguay's combination of (a) low effective tax rates and a tax-haven-adjacent regime, (b) abundant hydroelectricity from Itaipú and Yacyretá producing the cheapest-in-LATAM industrial electricity, (c) soybean and beef export specialisation, and (d) Mercosur trade integration produced a structurally stable growth path. The mechanism is a low-friction small-economy model. Primary statistics: log_gdp_pc_constant cumulative growth 2003-2024 (PRY) exceeds the LATAM median by at least 0.10 log-points, AND mean cpi_inflation_yoy is below 5%, AND the within-country standard deviation of real-GDP growth (a volatility metric) does not exceed the regional median.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc 2003-2024 (PRY minus LATAM median) is < 0.10, OR (b) mean cpi_inflation_yoy (PRY, 2003-2024) >= 5%, OR (c) within-PRY 5-year-rolling SD of real-GDP growth exceeds the LATAM median.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_plus_volatility_metric

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7550)
  • imf:GGXCNL_NGDP → fiscal_balance_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=imf, n=8848)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth_volatility (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • fred:PSOYBUSDM → soybean_price (controls, publisher=fred, n=280)
  • fred:PBEEFUSDM → beef_price (controls, publisher=fred, n=136)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → brazil_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → argentina_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:59+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Under-studied case; spec deliberately includes a volatility-metric to test the "stable" framing rather than only the "growth" framing.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.