IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·petro_reform_package_capital_flight_response_2022_2026

Colombia's policy package under Petro (2022-2026) — tax reform raising marginal rates on high incomes and dividends, energy-transition policies signalling oil/coal sector contraction, pension reform proposal, and labour reform — produces measurable capital-flight indicators beyond the synthetic counterfactual: peso real depreciation, sovereign credit-spread widening, resident-deposit dollarisation, and net portfolio outflows.

The pre-registered claim is that across at least 3 of 4 capital-flight indicators, Colombia diverges negatively from a Latin American institutional-quality-matched donor pool (Peru, Chile, Mexico) by 2026Q4.

PARTIALengine/runs/petro_reform_package_capital_flight_response_2022_2026

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-18.93, |gap|/pre_sd=1.2, p_perm=0.2; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-18.93, |gap|/pre_sd=1.2, p_perm=0.2; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2014 to 2026, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Petro era indicator
What we checked
  • Real effective exchange rate
  • Sovereign credit spread
  • Net portfolio flows pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/petro_reform_package_capital_flight_response_2022_2026
1007550250201420202026COLPERCHLMEXBRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_effective_exchange_rate across 5 sampled countries over 2014–2026.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for petro_reform_package_capital_flight_response_2022_2026. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/petro_reform_package_capital_flight_response_2022_2026/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:27:58Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Colombia's policy package under Petro (2022-2026) — tax reform raising marginal rates on high incomes and dividends, energy-transition policies signalling oil/coal sector contraction, pension reform proposal, and labour reform — produces measurable capital-flight indicators beyond the synthetic counterfactual: peso real depreciation, sovereign credit-spread widening, resident-deposit dollarisation, and net portfolio outflows. The pre-registered claim is that across at least 3 of 4 capital-flight indicators, Colombia diverges negatively from a Latin American institutional-quality-matched donor pool (Peru, Chile, Mexico) by 2026Q4.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if fewer than 3 of 4 capital-flight indicators (REER, EMBI spread, portfolio flows, deposit dollarisation) show negative CATT at p_perm < 0.10 over 2022Q3-2026Q4 versus the synthetic counterfactual. Strongly supported if all 4 do. The single-channel-supported case is mixed; channels noted in the result card.

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_did_multi_channel_capital_flight_count
threshold: channels_with_negative_CATT_at_p10 >= 3 of 4

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 2014 – 2026
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synth_did per outcome variable with COL treated from 2022Q3, PER+CHL+MEX donor pool. Secondary: event-study around tax-reform announcement (2022-09), energy-transition speech (2022-11), pension-reform proposal (2024-Q1) for short-window capital-flight signals. Tertiary: count of how many of 4 outcomes show negative CATT at p_perm < 0.10.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_effective_exchange_rate
outcome
bis:WS_EERtier 2
index_level_monthly
sovereign_credit_spread
outcome
jp_morgan_embi:COLtier 2
basis_points
net_portfolio_flows_pct_gdp
outcome
imf:BFPA_BP6_USDtier 2
world_bank_wdi:BX.PEF.TOTL.CD.WDtier 2
pct_gdp_quarterly
resident_deposit_dollarisation
outcome
banrep:deposits_fx_sharetier 1
pct_total_deposits
petro_era_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for COL from 2022Q3 onwardtier 5
binary
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log_level
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
emerging_market_risk_index
control
fred:STLFSI4tier 1
level
latam_peer_average_inflation
control
imf:PCPIPCHtier 2
quarterly_annualised
wgi_rule_of_law
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — petro_reform_package_capital_flight_response_2022_2026

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-18.93, |gap|/pre_sd=1.2, p_perm=0.2; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Colombia's policy package under Petro (2022-2026) — tax reform raising marginal rates on high incomes and dividends, energy-transition policies signalling oil/coal sector contraction, pension reform proposal, and labour reform — produces measurable capital-flight indicators beyond the synthetic counterfactual: peso real depreciation, sovereign credit-spread widening, resident-deposit dollarisation, and net portfolio outflows. The pre-registered claim is that across at least 3 of 4 capital-flight indicators, Colombia diverges negatively from a Latin American institutional-quality-matched donor pool (Peru, Chile, Mexico) by 2026Q4.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if fewer than 3 of 4 capital-flight indicators (REER, EMBI spread, portfolio flows, deposit dollarisation) show negative CATT at p_perm < 0.10 over 2022Q3-2026Q4 versus the synthetic counterfactual. Strongly supported if all 4 do. The single-channel-supported case is mixed; channels noted in the result card.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: COL
  • event_year: 2022
  • n_donors: 4
  • donor_weights (top): {'MEX': 0.6015, 'BRA': 0.3505, 'CHL': 0.0466, 'PER': 0.0014}
  • pre_rmse: 4.795875715735178
  • pre_period_sd: 16.0893506339162
  • mean_post_gap: -18.92552273077675
  • end_period_gap: -14.120389506806134
  • post_period_years: [2022, 2026]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.2
  • n_placebos: 4
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_EER → real_effective_exchange_rate (outcome, n=2922)
  • imf:PCPIPCH → latam_peer_average_inflation (controls, n=10789)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_RL.EST → wgi_rule_of_law (controls, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:27:58+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Companion to petro_reform_package_economic_trajectory_2022_present which tests the GDP/FDI channel. This hypothesis isolates the capital-account-and-FX channel specifically because capital-flight responses to redistributive-reform announcements are theoretically expected to lead real-economy effects by 6-18 months. Multi-metric design: any single capital-flight indicator can be noisy (e.g., spreads driven by US Fed cycle, peso driven by oil price), so the test requires divergence in at least 3 of 4 channels to support the capital-flight claim.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.