IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·petro_reform_package_economic_trajectory_2022_present

Colombia's real GDP, FDI inflows, and peso exchange-rate trajectory from Petro's August 2022 inauguration through 2026 diverge negatively from a comparable-institutional-quality Latin American donor pool (Peru, Chile, Mexico) weighted to match Colombia's pre-treatment macroeconomic profile (GDP per capita, oil export share, central-bank-independence index, WGI rule-of-law score, inflation-target credibility).

The hypothesis is deliberately symmetric: the pre-registered test permits a null result (no divergence), a negative result (policy-content cost), or a positive result (policy-content success). Given only ~2 years of observable data at time of drafting and another ~2 years of observation anticipated before the v1 run at 2027, the prior is genuinely uncertain; the pre-registration locks the specification now so the later run is not degrees-of-freedom fishing.

PARTIALengine/runs/petro_reform_package_economic_trajectory_2022_present

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-20.37, |gap|/pre_sd=1.3, p_perm=0.5; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-20.37, |gap|/pre_sd=1.3, p_perm=0.5; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 4 country or place units from 2014 to 2027, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Petro era indicator
  • Quarters since petro inauguration
What we checked
  • Real income quarterly
  • Foreign investment net inflows pct income
  • Real effective exchange rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/petro_reform_package_economic_trajectory_2022_present
descriptive sketch · model not yet run
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Marxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:27:59Z

Colombia's real GDP, FDI inflows, and peso exchange-rate trajectory from Petro's August 2022 inauguration through 2026 diverge negatively from a comparable-institutional-quality Latin American donor pool (Peru, Chile, Mexico) weighted to match Colombia's pre-treatment macroeconomic profile (GDP per capita, oil export share, central-bank-independence index, WGI rule-of-law score, inflation-target credibility). The hypothesis is deliberately symmetric: the pre-registered test permits a null result (no divergence), a negative result (policy-content cost), or a positive result (policy-content success). Given only ~2 years of observable data at time of drafting and another ~2 years of observation anticipated before the v1 run at 2027, the prior is genuinely uncertain; the pre-registration locks the specification now so the later run is not degrees-of-freedom fishing.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The pre-registered test supports the SYMMETRIC ASSESSMENT. A 'supported-negative' outcome requires ALL of: (a) synthetic- DiD cumulative real GDP gap 2022Q3-2026Q4 < -3 log-points, (b) FDI cumulative gap < -1 percentage point of GDP per year, (c) sovereign spread widening > 100 bp above synthetic counterfactual at peak. A 'supported-null' outcome requires all three gaps within ±1 SD of permutation-inference placebo distribution. A 'supported-positive' outcome would require equal-magnitude positive deviation. The hypothesis is 'not informative' if the permutation inference cannot distinguish any of the three regimes — which at ~4-year horizon with a 3-unit donor pool is a plausible outcome.

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_did_symmetric_assessment_with_donor_pool
threshold: classification one of {'supported-negative', 'supported-null', 'supported-positive', 'not-informative'} per pre-registered thresholds above; reporting all three deltas AND permutation p-values is required regardless of classification.

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
country
Sample
4 countries · 2014 – 2027
Evidence type
causal

Primary specification: synthetic DiD with COL as treated unit and PER+CHL+MEX donor pool. Pre-period 2014-2022Q2 defines the synthetic counterfactual; treatment effect is the gap between observed COL and synthetic COL from 2022Q3 onwards. Donor pool is chosen on pre-treatment institutional quality (WGI + CBI index + inflation-targeting credibility) rather than geography alone. Secondary specification: Callaway-Sant'Anna DiD with the three donors as never-treated control group. Robustness: re-fit synthetic control excluding Chile (which had its own Boric-era political turbulence) to check whether Chile's contemporaneous policy dynamics drive results.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_quarterly
outcome
imf:NGDP_RPCHtier 2
log_level_quarterly
fdi_net_inflows_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
annual_level
real_effective_exchange_rate
outcome
bis:WS_EERtier 2
index_level_monthly
sovereign_credit_spread
outcome
ecb:EMBItier 1
jpmorgan:EMBItier 3
basis_points_level
private_investment_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FPRV.ZStier 2
imf:INV_NGDPtier 2
annual_level_pct
petro_era_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for COL from 2022Q3 onward; 0 otherwisetier 5
binary
quarters_since_petro_inauguration
treatment
constructed:integer count of quarters since 2022Q3tier 5
integer_count
commodity_terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
quarterly_log_change
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
monthly_level
latam_peer_average_cpi_inflation
control
imf:PCPIPCHtier 2
quarterly_annualised
wgi_rule_of_law
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_RL.ESTtier 4
annual_level
central_bank_statutory_independence
control
constructed:CBI index (Garriga 2016 update or equivalent) — fixed across the window for donor-pool constantstier 5
level_fixed

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — petro_reform_package_economic_trajectory_2022_present

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-20.37, |gap|/pre_sd=1.3, p_perm=0.5; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Colombia's real GDP, FDI inflows, and peso exchange-rate trajectory from Petro's August 2022 inauguration through 2026 diverge negatively from a comparable-institutional-quality Latin American donor pool (Peru, Chile, Mexico) weighted to match Colombia's pre-treatment macroeconomic profile (GDP per capita, oil export share, central-bank-independence index, WGI rule-of-law score, inflation-target credibility). The hypothesis is deliberately symmetric: the pre-registered test permits a null result (no divergence), a negative result (policy-content cost), or a positive result (policy-content success). Given only ~2 years of observable data at time of drafting and another ~2 years of observation anticipated before the v1 run at 2027, the prior is genuinely uncertain; the pre-registration locks the specification now so the later run is not degrees-of-freedom fishing.
  • Falsification rule: The pre-registered test supports the SYMMETRIC ASSESSMENT. A 'supported-negative' outcome requires ALL of: (a) synthetic- DiD cumulative real GDP gap 2022Q3-2026Q4 < -3 log-points, (b) FDI cumulative gap < -1 percentage point of GDP per year, (c) sovereign spread widening > 100 bp above synthetic counterfactual at peak. A 'supported-null' outcome requires all three gaps within ±1 SD of permutation-inference placebo distribution. A 'supported-positive' outcome would require equal-magnitude positive deviation. The hypothesis is 'not informative' if the permutation inference cannot distinguish any of the three regimes — which at ~4-year horizon with a 3-unit donor pool is a plausible outcome.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: COL
  • event_year: 2022
  • n_donors: 3
  • donor_weights (top): {'MEX': 0.846, 'CHL': 0.154, 'PER': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 5.0161161561255625
  • pre_period_sd: 16.0893506339162
  • mean_post_gap: -20.369009477478034
  • end_period_gap: -16.317849842185126
  • post_period_years: [2022, 2026]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.5
  • n_placebos: 3
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_EER (COL, PER, CHL, MEX narrow/broad) → real_effective_exchange_rate (outcome, n=2922)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FPRV.ZS; imf:INV_NGDP (private) → private_investment_pct_gdp (outcome, n=3304)
  • imf:PCPIPCH → latam_peer_average_cpi_inflation (controls, n=10789)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_RL.EST → wgi_rule_of_law (controls, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:27:59+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data-gated: DANE (Colombia), INEI (Peru), INE CHL, INEGI (Mexico) quarterly GDP; BIS REER for currency trajectories; JPMorgan EMBI+ spreads (may require manual drop). FDI from WDI is the automated path. Pre-registration is locked with a 2027 v1 run target. If the political turnover (2026 Colombia presidential election) produces a successor movement, the v1 endpoint captures the full Petro term. Post-run v1.1 specifications can disaggregate channels (fiscal tax reform, pension reform, energy-transition, labour reform) as separate treatments.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.