IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_liberalisation_growth_effect

Major trade-liberalisation events — defined as sharp, policy-driven increases in trade-to-GDP openness sustained over at least 5 years — are associated with positive subsequent per-capita GDP growth over 10-year horizons, relative to matched non-liberalising controls.

The headline canonical cases examined are China's WTO accession (2001), India's 1991 liberalisation (Manmohan Singh reforms), New Zealand's 1984-1991 Rogernomics reforms, Vietnam's Doi Moi (1986 formally; main tariff reductions 1995-2007), and Chile's 1974-1979 liberalisation. The associational claim is that the sign and magnitude of subsequent growth differences are consistent with the Sachs-Warner and Wacziarg-Welch literatures and are not driven by selection into liberalisation alone.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_liberalisation_growth_effect

PARTIAL — ATT=+6.139e-12, p=0.285, N=584, treated_countries=29 (above α=0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. ATT=+6.139e-12, p=0.285, N=584, treated_countries=29 (above α=0.10)

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1980 to 2023, using a did callaway santanna design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Trade openness change event
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth 10yr
  • Total factor productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_liberalisation_growth_effect
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:26:09Z

Major trade-liberalisation events — defined as sharp, policy-driven increases in trade-to-GDP openness sustained over at least 5 years — are associated with positive subsequent per-capita GDP growth over 10-year horizons, relative to matched non-liberalising controls. The headline canonical cases examined are China's WTO accession (2001), India's 1991 liberalisation (Manmohan Singh reforms), New Zealand's 1984-1991 Rogernomics reforms, Vietnam's Doi Moi (1986 formally; main tariff reductions 1995-2007), and Chile's 1974-1979 liberalisation. The associational claim is that the sign and magnitude of subsequent growth differences are consistent with the Sachs-Warner and Wacziarg-Welch literatures and are not driven by selection into liberalisation alone.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if the Callaway-Sant'Anna ATT on 10-year-forward real per-capita GDP growth is not positive and significant at 5%, OR if the canonical-case synthetic-control exercise for the four main events does not show a positive growth gap relative to synthetic comparators in at least 3 of 4 cases, OR if the effect disappears when institutional-quality pretrend controls are added (suggesting liberalisation is a marker for broader reform rather than causal per se). Support requires all three conditions.

formal test & threshold
test:      staggered_did_plus_synthetic_control_canonical_cases
threshold: ATT(10y) > 0 at p<0.05 AND 3 of 4 canonical SC cases show positive 10y growth gap AND ATT attenuation when institutional controls added < 60%

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1980 – 2023
Evidence type
causal

Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD with never-liberalisers (or far-future liberalisers) as comparators, estimating ATT(g, t) for each event cohort and averaging to a single ATT over the 10-year post-event horizon. Robustness: synthetic control on the four main canonical cases (CHN 2001, IND 1991, NZL 1984, VNM 1986) reported as v2 companion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth_10yr
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
cumulative_log_growth_10yr_forward
total_factor_productivity_growth
outcome
imf:PCPItier 2
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.TOTL.INtier 2
solow_residual_growth_forward_10yr
trade_openness_change_event
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
event_coded_trade_reform_year
initial_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level_at_event_minus_1
initial_human_capital
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.ENRRtier 2
level_at_event_minus_1
institutional_quality_pretreatment
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.ESTtier 4
level_at_event_minus_1
polity_score_pretreatment
control
polity5:polity2tier 4
level_at_event_minus_1
conflict_dummy_pretreatment
control
ucdp:gedtier 3
active_conflict_at_event_minus_1_to_plus_2

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_liberalisation_growth_effect

Verdict: PARTIAL — ATT=+6.139e-12, p=0.285, N=584, treated_countries=29 (above α=0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Major trade-liberalisation events — defined as sharp, policy-driven increases in trade-to-GDP openness sustained over at least 5 years — are associated with positive subsequent per-capita GDP growth over 10-year horizons, relative to matched non-liberalising controls. The headline canonical cases examined are China's WTO accession (2001), India's 1991 liberalisation (Manmohan Singh reforms), New Zealand's 1984-1991 Rogernomics reforms, Vietnam's Doi Moi (1986 formally; main tariff reductions 1995-2007), and Chile's 1974-1979 liberalisation. The associational claim is that the sign and magnitude of subsequent growth differences are consistent with the Sachs-Warner and Wacziarg-Welch literatures and are not driven by selection into liberalisation alone.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if the Callaway-Sant'Anna ATT on 10-year-forward real per-capita GDP growth is not positive and significant at 5%, OR if the canonical-case synthetic-control exercise for the four main events does not show a positive growth gap relative to synthetic comparators in at least 3 of 4 cases, OR if the effect disappears when institutional-quality pretrend controls are added (suggesting liberalisation is a marker for broader reform rather than causal per se). Support requires all three conditions.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • coefficient: 6.139089236967266e-12
  • std_error: 5.743850321893683e-12
  • p_value: 0.28515493345949483
  • n_obs: 584
  • n_countries: 29
  • r_squared_within: 1.0
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: Callaway-Sant'Anna TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • n_treated_countries: 29
  • cohort_years: [1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2012, 2015]
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: ['conflict_dummy_pretreatment']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_per_capita_growth_10yr (outcome, n=14066)
  • imf:PCPI; world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD; world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.TOTL.IN → total_factor_productivity_growth (outcome, n=10789)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_change_event (treatment, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → initial_gdp_per_capita (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.ENRR → initial_human_capital (controls, n=8175)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.EST → institutional_quality_pretreatment (controls, n=5168)
  • ucdp:ged → conflict_dummy_pretreatment (controls, n=1978)

Missing data

  • polity5:polity2 (controls)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T10:26:09+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

The relationship between this hypothesis and industrial_policy_developmentalist_states_growth is designed to be tensioned: the developmentalist hypothesis argues selective protection + export discipline drives growth; the trade-liberalisation hypothesis argues general opening drives growth. Both can be simultaneously true under different conditions (stage of development, state capacity); the framework should surface that and not collapse into either as a universal claim.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.