Pre-registration
Pinochet-era Chile's rapid liberalisation programme (1973-1982) produced an initial growth collapse culminating in the 1975 recession and the 1982 banking-and-debt crisis, with sustained recovery only after selective state re-engagement (copper-sector re-nationalisation, Banco del Estado expansion, pension-system guarantee backstopping). The pure-Chicago prescription underperformed East Asian developmentalist peers over 1973-1990 on growth, volatility, and financial-stability metrics.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
The hypothesis is SUPPORTED if synthetic-control estimate of Chile's cumulative real GDP per capita growth 1973-1990 underperforms an East Asian donor pool by at least 20% AND the 1982 banking-crisis output cost exceeds 10% of GDP (consistent with pure-Chicago prescription underperforming). REFUTED if Chile outperforms or the crisis cost is below 5% of GDP.
formal test & threshold
test: Synth-DID with CHL treated 1973 vs East Asian donor pool {KOR,TWN,SGP,MYS,THA,IDN}; outcome cumulative real GDP per capita 1973-1990 and 1982 banking-crisis output cost; falsified if synth gap below 20% or crisis cost below 5% of GDP.Method
- Template
synth_did- Clustering
none- Sample
- 7 countries · 1965 – 1995
- Evidence type
- associational
Chile treated 1973-1990; East Asian donor pool (KOR, TWN, SGP, MYS). Outcomes: cumulative real GDP per capita, output volatility, banking- crisis output cost. Tests whether pure-Chicago liberalisation underperformed selective developmentalist comparators.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
log_gdp_pc_ppp outcome | maddison:gdppc_ppptier 3 | log |
real_gdp_growth outcome | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2 | level |
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp outcome | world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2 | level |
tfp_index outcome | pwt:rtfpnatier 3 | level |
pinochet_chicago_treated treatment | constructed:indicator = 1 for CHL, years 1973-1990 (Pinochet/Chicago Boys window)tier 5 | indicator |
copper_price_index control | imf_pcps:PCOPPtier 1 | log |
trade_openness control | world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2 | level |
log_population control | world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2 | log |
log_initial_gdp_pc control | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2 | log |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Notes
Seeded from a developmentalist claim that Pinochet-era Chile's pure-Chicago liberalisation 1973-1982 produced an initial growth collapse and the 1982 banking crisis, with sustained recovery only after selective state re-engagement. Synth-DID against East Asian developmentalist peers; human review needed for the East Asian donor pool selection.