Pre-registration
Following the 1989-1992 collapse of the Soviet bloc, post-communist countries that adopted market reforms rapidly (Poland, Estonia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania — the "fast reformers") experienced faster recovery in life expectancy at birth than countries that reformed slowly or retained state-socialist economic structures (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Kazakhstan — the "slow reformers"). By 2019 (pre-COVID cut-off), fast reformers' life expectancy had converged substantially toward Western European levels; slow reformers experienced a prolonged mortality crisis (1991- 2003) and a partial recovery thereafter. The gap between fast and slow reformer groups in 2019 should be at least 4 life-years, having been essentially zero in 1989.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
Not supported if β_fast - β_slow <= 2 life-years at p<0.10 in the aggregate TWFE, OR if fast-reformer countries' 2019 life expectancy is NOT at least 4 years higher than slow-reformer average. A clean pass requires (a) the between-group gap is materially wider in 2019 than in 1989 (at least 3 additional life-years), (b) the TWFE coefficient difference is positive and significant, and (c) the event-study leads (pre-1992 years) show no spurious effect.
formal test & threshold
test: post_soviet_reform_lifespan_recovery_diff_in_diff threshold: (LE_fast_2019 - LE_slow_2019) - (LE_fast_1989 - LE_slow_1989) >= 3 years AND β_fast - β_slow > 2 years at p<0.10
Method
- Template
panel_fe- Fixed effects
country, year- Clustering
country- Sample
- 20 countries · 1989 – 2019
- Evidence type
- causal
TWFE with country + year FE. β_fast identifies the average post-1992 deviation in life expectancy for fast-reformer countries relative to their own pre-1992 trend AND relative to the common year-level path of Western controls. Similarly β_slow for slow-reformers. Expected: β_fast > β_slow (fast reformers recovered more). Magnitude prediction: fast reformers recover within ~5-10 years; slow reformers show a decade+ mortality crisis, with β_slow possibly negative in the initial post-treatment years. Secondary event-study: per-year β_fast_t and β_slow_t coefficients from t=-5 to t=+25 around 1992. Expect fast-reformer trajectory to rise sharply post-1992; slow-reformer trajectory to DIP sharply 1992- 2003 then recover.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
life_expectancy_at_birth outcome | world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2 | level_years |
fast_reformer_post_transition treatment | constructed:indicator = 1 for (country in fast-reformer set) AND year >= 1992. Fast reformers = POL, EST, CZE, HUN, SVN, SVK, LVA, Ltier 5 | indicator |
slow_reformer_post_transition treatment | constructed:indicator = 1 for (country in slow-reformer set) AND year >= 1992. Slow reformers = RUS, UKR, BLR, MDA, KAZ.tier 5 | indicator |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card — post_soviet_market_reform_life_expectancy
Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'fast_reformer_post_transition' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects
Pre-registration
- Claim: Following the 1989-1992 collapse of the Soviet bloc, post-communist countries that adopted market reforms rapidly (Poland, Estonia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania — the "fast reformers") experienced faster recovery in life expectancy at birth than countries that reformed slowly or retained state-socialist economic structures (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Kazakhstan — the "slow reformers"). By 2019 (pre-COVID cut-off), fast reformers' life expectancy had converged substantially toward Western European levels; slow reformers experienced a prolonged mortality crisis (1991- 2003) and a partial recovery thereafter. The gap between fast and slow reformer groups in 2019 should be at least 4 life-years, having been essentially zero in 1989.
- Falsification rule: Not supported if β_fast - β_slow <= 2 life-years at p<0.10 in the aggregate TWFE, OR if fast-reformer countries' 2019 life expectancy is NOT at least 4 years higher than slow-reformer average. A clean pass requires (a) the between-group gap is materially wider in 2019 than in 1989 (at least 3 additional life-years), (b) the TWFE coefficient difference is positive and significant, and (c) the event-study leads (pre-1992 years) show no spurious effect.
- Falsification test: post_soviet_reform_lifespan_recovery_diff_in_diff
Estimate
- Error: treatment 'fast_reformer_post_transition' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects
Variables resolved
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.IN→ life_expectancy_at_birth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14443)constructed: indicator = 1 for (country in fast-reformer set) AND year >= 1992. Fast reformers = POL, EST, CZE, HUN, SVN, SVK, LVA, LTU.→ fast_reformer_post_transition (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=620)constructed: indicator = 1 for (country in slow-reformer set) AND year >= 1992. Slow reformers = RUS, UKR, BLR, MDA, KAZ.→ slow_reformer_post_transition (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=620)
Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:23+00:00
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Fast-reformer set based on EBRD reform-index rankings 1991-1998. Poland = shock therapy 1990 (Balcerowicz Plan). Estonia = radical liberalisation 1992 onward. Czech = Klaus reforms 1991-1992. These are the canonical fast-reformer cases. Slow-reformer set = countries that retained large SOE sectors, maintained price controls longer, had delayed privatisation, or (Belarus) explicitly rejected neoliberal reform. Russia classified as slow-reformer despite 1992 shock therapy, because the reform was chaotic and combined with fiscal collapse; mortality data supports this placement. 2020-2023 dropped due to COVID mortality confound hitting different countries at different times/magnitudes.