IESET.
Hypotheses·regulatory·product_market_regulation_tfp_30yr_panel

Across OECD countries 1975-2020, lower product-market regulation (PMR) predicts higher long-run total-factor-productivity growth, after controlling for education attainment, capital deepening, and initial income per capita.

The pre-registered claim is that a one-standard-deviation reduction in the OECD PMR composite index is associated with at least 0.3 percentage points higher annual TFP growth over the subsequent decade, in a panel with country and year fixed effects.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/product_market_regulation_tfp_30yr_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'oecd_pmr_composite_index' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'oecd_pmr_composite_index' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

This matters because regulatory claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 35 country or place units from 1975 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Rich-country pmr composite index
  • Rich-country pmr barriers to entry
What we checked
  • Productivity growth 10yr
  • Labour productivity growth 10yr
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/product_market_regulation_tfp_30yr_panel
1007550250197519982020USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth_10yr across 35 sampled countries over 1975–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for product_market_regulation_tfp_30yr_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/product_market_regulation_tfp_30yr_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:33Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Across OECD countries 1975-2020, lower product-market regulation (PMR) predicts higher long-run total-factor-productivity growth, after controlling for education attainment, capital deepening, and initial income per capita. The pre-registered claim is that a one-standard-deviation reduction in the OECD PMR composite index is associated with at least 0.3 percentage points higher annual TFP growth over the subsequent decade, in a panel with country and year fixed effects.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) the panel-FE coefficient on PMR composite is not negative and significant at p<0.05 (higher PMR = lower TFP growth), OR (b) a one-SD PMR reduction corresponds to less than 0.15 pp higher annual TFP growth, OR (c) the coefficient becomes insignificant when EPL is omitted (indicating labour- market regulation is the true driver, not product-market regulation). A coordinated-market-economy / Varieties-of- Capitalism reading wins if PMR is insignificant but EPL or vocational-training variables are significant.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_pmr_on_tfp_growth_with_epl_robustness
threshold: panel_FE_beta(PMR_composite → tfp_growth_10yr) < 0 at p<0.05 AND implied_annual_effect_per_1sd_PMR_reduction >= 0.15 pp AND coefficient remains negative at p<0.10 when EPL included

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
35 countries · 1975 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Panel FE with 10-year forward-differenced TFP on lagged PMR levels. Country and year FE absorb most cross-sectional variation; identification relies on within-country PMR reforms (e.g. UK 1980s, EU Single Market 1990s, Germany 2000s Hartz-adjacent product-market reforms). Robustness: use PMR sub-components separately; IV using EU-membership-induced reform pressure as instrument.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth_10yr
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log_diff_10yr
labour_productivity_growth_10yr
outcome
pwt:rgdpo_per_emptier 3
log_diff_10yr
oecd_pmr_composite_index
treatment
oecd_pmr:pmr_compositetier 4
level
oecd_pmr_barriers_to_entry
treatment
oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entrytier 4
level
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
years_schooling_average
control
barro_lee:years_schoolingtier 5
level
capital_deepening_rate
control
pwt:rnnatier 3
log_diff_10yr
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
employment_protection_legislation
control
oecd_pmr:epl_compositetier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — product_market_regulation_tfp_30yr_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'oecd_pmr_composite_index' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across OECD countries 1975-2020, lower product-market regulation (PMR) predicts higher long-run total-factor-productivity growth, after controlling for education attainment, capital deepening, and initial income per capita. The pre-registered claim is that a one-standard-deviation reduction in the OECD PMR composite index is associated with at least 0.3 percentage points higher annual TFP growth over the subsequent decade, in a panel with country and year fixed effects.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) the panel-FE coefficient on PMR composite is not negative and significant at p<0.05 (higher PMR = lower TFP growth), OR (b) a one-SD PMR reduction corresponds to less than 0.15 pp higher annual TFP growth, OR (c) the coefficient becomes insignificant when EPL is omitted (indicating labour- market regulation is the true driver, not product-market regulation). A coordinated-market-economy / Varieties-of- Capitalism reading wins if PMR is insignificant but EPL or vocational-training variables are significant.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_pmr_on_tfp_growth_with_epl_robustness

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'oecd_pmr_composite_index' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth_10yr (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • pwt:rgdpo_per_emp → labour_productivity_growth_10yr (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=9529)
  • oecd_pmr:pmr_composite → oecd_pmr_composite_index (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entry → oecd_pmr_barriers_to_entry (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_initial_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • barro_lee:years_schooling (controls, name=years_schooling_average) — vintage not on disk
  • pwt:rnna (controls, name=capital_deepening_rate) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd_pmr:epl_composite (controls, name=employment_protection_legislation) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:33+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

OECD PMR series has vintages 1998, 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018; the panel is constructed using interpolated values between vintages (piecewise-constant or linear interpolation). This is a known measurement-limitation flagged in diagnostics.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.