IESET.
Hypotheses·regulatory·public_procurement_innovation_conditions

Higher regulatory quality predicts stronger investment and innovation diffusion where procurement is more rule-bound.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/public_procurement_innovation_conditions

SUPPORTED — coef=+2.654 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0292

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Does the policy environment make innovation easier to fund, build, and scale, or does it slow down useful new technology?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+2.654 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0292

why it matters

This matters because regulatory claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1996 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market or intervention proxy
What we checked
  • Qol or prosperity outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/public_procurement_innovation_conditions
1007550250199620102023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show qol_or_prosperity_outcome across 40 sampled countries over 1996–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for public_procurement_innovation_conditions. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/public_procurement_innovation_conditions/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:33Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher regulatory quality predicts stronger investment and innovation diffusion where procurement is more rule-bound.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the pre-registered sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_public_procurement_innovation_conditions
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1996 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Local-data first-pass TWFE screen; upgrade to exact treatment/outcome datasets before scoreboard promotion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
qol_or_prosperity_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
market_or_intervention_proxy
treatment
wgi:RQ.ESTtier 4
level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — public_procurement_innovation_conditions

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+2.654 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0292

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher regulatory quality predicts stronger investment and innovation diffusion where procurement is more rule-bound.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the pre-registered sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_public_procurement_innovation_conditions

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +2.654
  • Std error: 1.215
  • p-value: 0.0292
  • Observations: 775, countries: 31
  • Within R²: 0.0746
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → qol_or_prosperity_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • wgi:RQ.EST → market_or_intervention_proxy (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5169)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:33+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.