IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·sea_thailand_2014_coup_tourism_shock

Thailand's 2014 military coup and ensuing junta + 2017 constitutional reset under-performed peer ASEAN economies on per-capita GDP growth through 2019, and Thailand's heavy tourism-dependence (international tourism receipts ~12-18% of GDP pre-COVID) produced a sharper-than-peer contraction in 2020 and slower recovery through 2023.

Real GDP-pc growth differential Thailand minus ASEAN-5 peer mean over 2014-2019 is at least -1.0pp/yr (Thailand below peers), and Thailand's 2020 GDP contraction is at least 3pp deeper than the ASEAN-5 mean.

REFUTEDengine/runs/sea_thailand_2014_coup_tourism_shock

REFUTED — coef=-0.9732 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0219

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-0.9732 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0219

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2008 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post 2014 coup indicator
  • Covid 2020 indicator
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
  • Real income growth
  • Services value added pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/sea_thailand_2014_coup_tourism_shock
1007550250200820162023THAIDNMYSPHLVNM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 5 sampled countries over 2008–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for sea_thailand_2014_coup_tourism_shock. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/sea_thailand_2014_coup_tourism_shock/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:01Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Thailand's 2014 military coup and ensuing junta + 2017 constitutional reset under-performed peer ASEAN economies on per-capita GDP growth through 2019, and Thailand's heavy tourism-dependence (international tourism receipts ~12-18% of GDP pre-COVID) produced a sharper-than-peer contraction in 2020 and slower recovery through 2023. Real GDP-pc growth differential Thailand minus ASEAN-5 peer mean over 2014-2019 is at least -1.0pp/yr (Thailand below peers), and Thailand's 2020 GDP contraction is at least 3pp deeper than the ASEAN-5 mean.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH for SUPPORTED): (1) real GDP-pc growth differential THA minus ASEAN-5 peer mean (IDN, MYS, PHL, VNM) over 2014-2019 is at most -0.01 (THA at least 1pp/yr below peers); AND (2) THA 2020 real GDP growth minus ASEAN-5 mean 2020 growth is at most -0.03. REFUTED if EITHER differential is positive.

formal test & threshold
test:      thailand_post_coup_underperformance_tourism_shock_2020
threshold: PRIMARY 1: gdp_pc_growth(THA, 2014-2019) - gdp_pc_growth(ASEAN5, 2014-2019) <= -0.01. PRIMARY 2: gdp_growth(THA, 2020) - gdp_growth(ASEAN5, 2020) <= -0.03. METHOD_VALID: WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG and NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG for THA and ASEAN-5 through 2020.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 2008 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE panel. Two pre-registered tests on differentials. WGI institutional-quality channel could be added in a follow-on spec but is not gating here.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
real_gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
services_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
international_tourism_receipts_pct_exports
outcome
world_bank_wdi:ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZStier 2
level
post_2014_coup_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for THA, year >= 2014tier 5
indicator
covid_2020_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for year == 2020tier 5
indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — sea_thailand_2014_coup_tourism_shock

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-0.9732 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0219

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Thailand's 2014 military coup and ensuing junta + 2017 constitutional reset under-performed peer ASEAN economies on per-capita GDP growth through 2019, and Thailand's heavy tourism-dependence (international tourism receipts ~12-18% of GDP pre-COVID) produced a sharper-than-peer contraction in 2020 and slower recovery through 2023. Real GDP-pc growth differential Thailand minus ASEAN-5 peer mean over 2014-2019 is at least -1.0pp/yr (Thailand below peers), and Thailand's 2020 GDP contraction is at least 3pp deeper than the ASEAN-5 mean.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH for SUPPORTED): (1) real GDP-pc growth differential THA minus ASEAN-5 peer mean (IDN, MYS, PHL, VNM) over 2014-2019 is at most -0.01 (THA at least 1pp/yr below peers); AND (2) THA 2020 real GDP growth minus ASEAN-5 mean 2020 growth is at most -0.03. REFUTED if EITHER differential is positive.
  • Falsification test: thailand_post_coup_underperformance_tourism_shock_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.9732
  • Std error: 0.4133
  • p-value: 0.0219
  • Observations: 80, countries: 5
  • Within R²: 0.00567
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_value_added_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10330)
  • world_bank_wdi:ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS → international_tourism_receipts_pct_exports (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4663)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for THA, year >= 2014 → post_2014_coup_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=80)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: indicator = 1 for year == 2020 (treatment, name=covid_2020_indicator) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:01+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests two channels: (1) institutional/political under-performance post-coup and (2) tourism-dependence amplifying the COVID shock. Thailand was the only ASEAN-5 economy in the bottom half of 2014-2019 growth rankings and had the deepest 2020 contraction.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.