IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·sea_vietnam_doi_moi_followon_growth_1995_2024

Vietnam's post-1995 trajectory — building on the 1986 Doi Moi reforms through US trade-normalisation 1995, ASEAN accession 1995, BTA with the US 2001, WTO accession 2007, EVFTA 2020, and a deliberate FDI manufacturing-attraction strategy — produced sustained convergence to middle-income levels, with real GDP-per-capita (PPP) growth averaging at least 4.5 percentage points per year above the SE-Asian peer panel mean (PHL, IDN, KHM, LAO, BGD, MMR) over 1995-2019.

The cumulative log-gap by 2019 vs the peer panel exceeds +0.6 log points (~+82% in levels).

PARTIALengine/runs/sea_vietnam_doi_moi_followon_growth_1995_2024

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+0.465, |gap|/pre_sd=4.8, p_perm=0.143 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+0.465, |gap|/pre_sd=4.8, p_perm=0.143 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1995 to 2024, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post 1995 integration indicator
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Manufacturing value added pct income
  • Exports pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

7 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/sea_vietnam_doi_moi_followon_growth_1995_2024
1007550250199520102024VNMPHLIDNKHMLAOBGDMMR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_ppp across 7 sampled countries over 1995–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for sea_vietnam_doi_moi_followon_growth_1995_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/sea_vietnam_doi_moi_followon_growth_1995_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T17:29:26Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Vietnam's post-1995 trajectory — building on the 1986 Doi Moi reforms through US trade-normalisation 1995, ASEAN accession 1995, BTA with the US 2001, WTO accession 2007, EVFTA 2020, and a deliberate FDI manufacturing-attraction strategy — produced sustained convergence to middle-income levels, with real GDP-per-capita (PPP) growth averaging at least 4.5 percentage points per year above the SE-Asian peer panel mean (PHL, IDN, KHM, LAO, BGD, MMR) over 1995-2019. The cumulative log-gap by 2019 vs the peer panel exceeds +0.6 log points (~+82% in levels).

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED if cumulative log-GDP-pc-PPP gap (VNM minus equal-weighted peer-pool mean of PHL, IDN, KHM, LAO, BGD, MMR) from 1995 to 2019 is at least +0.6 log-points. REFUTED if the gap is at most +0.2 log-points (or negative).

formal test & threshold
test:      vietnam_post_1995_log_gap_vs_se_asia_peer_pool_2019
threshold: PRIMARY: log_gdp_pc_ppp(VNM, 2019) - log_gdp_pc_ppp(VNM, 1995) - [log_gdp_pc_ppp(peers, 2019) - log_gdp_pc_ppp(peers, 1995)] >= 0.6. METHOD_VALID: WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD available for VNM and >=4 of 6 peers across 1995-2019.

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 1995 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Equal-weighted peer-pool baseline; informative full synth-DiD with weight optimisation. Outcome: log GDP-pc PPP. Donor pool excludes THA, MYS as too-developed peers but includes them as informative reference.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
fdi_inflows_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
post_1995_integration_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for VNM, year >= 1995tier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — sea_vietnam_doi_moi_followon_growth_1995_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+0.465, |gap|/pre_sd=4.8, p_perm=0.143 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Vietnam's post-1995 trajectory — building on the 1986 Doi Moi reforms through US trade-normalisation 1995, ASEAN accession 1995, BTA with the US 2001, WTO accession 2007, EVFTA 2020, and a deliberate FDI manufacturing-attraction strategy — produced sustained convergence to middle-income levels, with real GDP-per-capita (PPP) growth averaging at least 4.5 percentage points per year above the SE-Asian peer panel mean (PHL, IDN, KHM, LAO, BGD, MMR) over 1995-2019. The cumulative log-gap by 2019 vs the peer panel exceeds +0.6 log points (~+82% in levels).
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED if cumulative log-GDP-pc-PPP gap (VNM minus equal-weighted peer-pool mean of PHL, IDN, KHM, LAO, BGD, MMR) from 1995 to 2019 is at least +0.6 log-points. REFUTED if the gap is at most +0.2 log-points (or negative).

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: VNM
  • event_year: 2001
  • n_donors: 6
  • donor_weights (top): {'LAO': 0.8187, 'MMR': 0.1813, 'PHL': 0.0, 'IDN': 0.0, 'KHM': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 0.5407108016667185
  • pre_period_sd: 0.09692829804173753
  • mean_post_gap: 0.4649691177728692
  • end_period_gap: 0.6050566946766249
  • post_period_years: [2001, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.14285714285714285
  • n_placebos: 6
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp (outcome, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → exports_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10904)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_pct_gdp (outcome, n=11580)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, n=6407)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for VNM, year >= 1995 → post_1995_integration_indicator (treatment, n=210)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, n=16935)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp (controls, n=10428)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-15T17:29:26+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Complement to vietnam_doi_moi_developmental_pattern_growth_effect (1986 onset). This hypothesis tests the SUSTAINED follow-on growth through 2024 with multiple integration steps treated as a sustained institutional+trade reform regime.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.