IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·vietnam_doi_moi_developmental_pattern_growth_effect

Vietnam's Doi Moi 1986 reforms and subsequent export-oriented strategy replicated the East Asian developmental-state pattern and produced three decades of above-peer-region growth.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/vietnam_doi_moi_developmental_pattern_growth_effect

SUPPORTED — Vietnam log-GDP-per-capita ran +0.34 log-points (≈ +40%) above the equal-weighted SE-Asian donor pool (PHL, IDN, KHM, LAO, BGD, MMR) by 2010, base year 1990. Threshold was +0.25 log-points; cleared by +0.09. Long-window gap to 2019: +0.33 log-points (≈ +39%).

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. Vietnam log-GDP-per-capita ran +0.34 log-points (≈ +40%) above the equal-weighted SE-Asian donor pool (PHL, IDN, KHM, LAO, BGD, MMR) by 2010, base year 1990.

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 9 country or place units from 1986 to 2019, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Doi moi treated
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Manufacturing value added pct income
  • Exports pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/vietnam_doi_moi_developmental_pattern_growth_effect
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Vietnam's Doi Moi 1986 reforms and subsequent export-oriented strategy replicated the East Asian developmental-state pattern and produced three decades of above-peer-region growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED if the cumulative log-GDP-per-capita gap (Vietnam minus equal-weighted SE-Asian donor-pool counterfactual) by 2010 exceeds +0.25 log-points (~+28% in levels), where the donor pool is {PHL, IDN, KHM, LAO, BGD, MMR} and the index is anchored at the first year all panel members have WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD coverage (typically 1990, since WDI VNM PPP coverage begins then). REFUTED if the gap is <= 0 (Vietnam at or below equal-weight donor mean). PARTIAL if 0 < gap < +0.25. INFORMATIVE: post-2000 mean gaps in (i) manufacturing-value-added/GDP share (NV.IND.MANF.ZS) and (ii) exports/GDP share (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS) vs the same donor pool; PWT rtfpna log-change vs donors over common years. METHOD_VALID: at least 3 of the 6 donors must have WDI GDP-pc-PPP data at the base year, and at least 10 overlapping VNM/donor-pool years base-to-2010, else the verdict is `inconclusive (method_valid)`.

formal test & threshold
test:      vietnam_doi_moi_log_gap_2010_vs_se_asia_donor_pool
threshold: PRIMARY: log_gap(VNM, donor_mean, year=2010) >= +0.25.

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
none
Sample
9 countries · 1986 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Vietnam treated post-1986; donor pool of comparable Southeast Asian economies (PHL, IDN, MMR, KHM, LAO, BGD) with similar 1986 income. Outcome: real GDP per capita and manufacturing-export share. Tests whether Doi Moi reforms produced above-counterfactual growth.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
doi_moi_treated
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for VNM, year >= 1986 (Doi Moi reforms)tier 5
indicator
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Vietnam Doi Moi developmental pattern — growth effect

Verdict: SUPPORTED — Vietnam log-GDP-per-capita ran +0.34 log-points (≈ +40%) above the equal-weighted SE-Asian donor pool (PHL, IDN, KHM, LAO, BGD, MMR) by 2010, base year 1990. Threshold was +0.25 log-points; cleared by +0.09. Long-window gap to 2019: +0.33 log-points (≈ +39%).

Summary

Equal-weighted SE-Asian donor-pool counterfactual for Vietnam's post-Doi-Moi GDP-per-capita PPP. Vietnam treated in 1986; data effectively begins 1990 (WDI VNM coverage). Donor pool (at base year): PHL, IDN, KHM, LAO, BGD, MMR.

  • Primary log-gap by 2010: +0.34 log-points (≈ +40% in levels) vs threshold +0.25.
  • Long-window gap to 2019: +0.33 log-points (≈ +39% in levels).
  • VNM log-index at 2010: +1.08; donor mean: +0.75.
  • Overlap years base→2010: 21 (need ≥10).

Informative metrics

  • mfg_value_added_pct_gdp: data gap (missing series).
  • exports_pct_gdp: data gap (missing series).
  • PWT TFP: not available on this vintage.

Method

  • Treatment: Vietnam, year ≥ 1986 (Doi Moi).
  • Donor pool: PHL, IDN, KHM, LAO, BGD, MMR (Southeast-Asian peers with comparable 1986 income, excluding the East Asian Tigers THA/MYS which are reference comparators rather than donors).
  • Counterfactual: equal-weighted mean of donor pool log-GDP-pc-PPP, anchored to the first overlapping year (typically 1990 for WDI). No optimisation of donor weights — equal-weighting is a conservative baseline because it includes KHM/LAO/MMR which had their own catch-up booms post-1990; a true synth-DiD weight optimiser would likely down-weight these and INCREASE the gap.
  • Primary statistic: cumulative log-GDP-pc gap (VNM minus donor-mean) at 2010.
  • Dispositive threshold: +0.25 log-points (≈ +28% in levels). The spec asked for >+25%, rendered in log-space here.
  • Method validity gates: ≥3 donors with data at base year, ≥10 overlap years base→2010.

Caveats

  • WDI's NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD coverage for VNM begins 1990, not 1986. The script anchors the index at the first overlapping year (1990 in current vintage). Pre-Doi-Moi macro data for VNM is sparse and not in WDI on the PPP basis — synth-DiD pre-trend matching in the strict sense is not feasible without alternate sources.
  • Equal-weighted donor-pool counterfactual is NOT a true synth-DiD weight optimisation. v2 should run a proper synth with pre-1986 covariate matching where data permits, or fall back to PPP from PWT (which has earlier coverage).
  • Donor pool excludes THA/MYS (East Asian Tiger / NIE peers). If those were included, the counterfactual would be higher and the Vietnam gap would be smaller. v2 robustness check.
  • Author's market-liberal priors interpret Vietnam's success as primarily about market opening, not state-led pattern replication; this could under-weight industrial-policy evidence.

Data

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD — data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD@2026-04-27T091022Z.parquet
  • MISSING world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS
  • MISSING world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS
  • pwt:rtfpna — data/vintages/pwt/rtfpna@2026-04-27T090915Z.parquet

Notes

Stub seeded from a developmentalist school prediction about Vietnam's post-1986 trajectory. Pre-Doi-Moi macro data is sparse; needs human review of donor-pool comparability with regional peers.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.