IESET.
Hypotheses·regulatory·sectoral_competition_services_productivity

Among high-income economies 1990-2020, services-sector competition — measured by low barriers to entry, low incumbent-protection scores, and high churn in retail, transport, communications, and professional services — predicts long-run prosperity (real GDP per capita growth and labour-productivity growth) better than manufacturing-specific industrial policy spending.

The pre- registered claim is that, in a horse-race regression, the coefficient on services-sector competition is larger in absolute t-statistic than the coefficient on manufacturing industrial- policy spending, and that countries in the top tercile of services competition show at least 0.3 percentage points higher annual labour-productivity growth than countries in the bottom tercile.

PARTIALengine/runs/sectoral_competition_services_productivity

PARTIAL — coef=+0.000842, p=0.361 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.000842, p=0.361 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because regulatory claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 33 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Services sector competition index
  • Manufacturing industrial policy spending
What we checked
  • Labour productivity growth
  • Real income per capita growth
  • Services sector productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/sectoral_competition_services_productivity
1007550250199020052020USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show labour_productivity_growth across 33 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for sectoral_competition_services_productivity. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/sectoral_competition_services_productivity/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:34Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Among high-income economies 1990-2020, services-sector competition — measured by low barriers to entry, low incumbent-protection scores, and high churn in retail, transport, communications, and professional services — predicts long-run prosperity (real GDP per capita growth and labour-productivity growth) better than manufacturing-specific industrial policy spending. The pre- registered claim is that, in a horse-race regression, the coefficient on services-sector competition is larger in absolute t-statistic than the coefficient on manufacturing industrial- policy spending, and that countries in the top tercile of services competition show at least 0.3 percentage points higher annual labour-productivity growth than countries in the bottom tercile.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) the services-competition coefficient is not positive and significant at p<0.05 on productivity growth, OR (b) in the horse-race the manufacturing-industrial-policy coefficient has a larger absolute t-statistic than services competition, OR (c) the top-tercile vs bottom-tercile productivity growth gap is below 0.15 pp/year. A manufacturing-first / industrial-policy reading wins cleanly if manufacturing policy outperforms services competition in the horse-race.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_horserace_services_competition_vs_manufacturing_policy
threshold: panel_FE_beta(services_competition → productivity_growth) > 0 at p<0.05 AND |t_stat(services_competition)| > |t_stat(manufacturing_policy)| in horse-race AND top_tercile_mean_gap >= 0.30 pp/yr

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
33 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Panel FE horse-race: services competition and manufacturing industrial policy entered simultaneously. Primary test is absolute t-statistic comparison. Tercile comparison as robustness. Robustness: exclude US; use only EU-15 sub-sample; use PMR retail-trade and professional-services sub-components separately.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
labour_productivity_growth
outcome
pwt:rgdpo_per_emptier 3
log_diff
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
services_sector_productivity_growth
outcome
oecd_stan:va_per_hour_servicestier 5
log_diff
services_sector_competition_index
treatment
oecd_pmr:pmr_servicestier 4
level
manufacturing_industrial_policy_spending
treatment
constructed:state_aid_manufacturing + subsidies + directed_credit_manufacturingtier 5
level
trade_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rd_spending_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZStier 2
level
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
product_market_regulation_overall
control
oecd_pmr:pmr_compositetier 4
level
manufacturing_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — sectoral_competition_services_productivity

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.000842, p=0.361 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Among high-income economies 1990-2020, services-sector competition — measured by low barriers to entry, low incumbent-protection scores, and high churn in retail, transport, communications, and professional services — predicts long-run prosperity (real GDP per capita growth and labour-productivity growth) better than manufacturing-specific industrial policy spending. The pre- registered claim is that, in a horse-race regression, the coefficient on services-sector competition is larger in absolute t-statistic than the coefficient on manufacturing industrial- policy spending, and that countries in the top tercile of services competition show at least 0.3 percentage points higher annual labour-productivity growth than countries in the bottom tercile.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) the services-competition coefficient is not positive and significant at p<0.05 on productivity growth, OR (b) in the horse-race the manufacturing-industrial-policy coefficient has a larger absolute t-statistic than services competition, OR (c) the top-tercile vs bottom-tercile productivity growth gap is below 0.15 pp/year. A manufacturing-first / industrial-policy reading wins cleanly if manufacturing policy outperforms services competition in the horse-race.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_horserace_services_competition_vs_manufacturing_policy

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.000842
  • Std error: 0.0009216
  • p-value: 0.361
  • Observations: 628, countries: 28
  • Within R²: 0.595
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rgdpo_per_emp → labour_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=9529)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_initial_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS → rd_spending_share_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3140)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • oecd_pmr:pmr_composite → product_market_regulation_overall (controls, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_share_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)

Variables missing data

  • oecd_stan:va_per_hour_services (outcome, name=services_sector_productivity_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd_pmr:pmr_services (treatment, name=services_sector_competition_index) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: state_aid_manufacturing + subsidies + directed_credit_manufacturing (treatment, name=manufacturing_industrial_policy_spending) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

OECD PMR services-sector index has best coverage for OECD members. Manufacturing industrial-policy spending by sector is available from EU State Aid Scoreboard for EU members; other countries rely on national sources or aggregate subsidy proxies.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.