IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·services_trade_liberalisation_frontier_growth

Services trade liberalisation predicts stronger total factor productivity growth in high-income frontier economies after 1990 than goods-sector industrial policy does.

The directional claim is that a one-standard- deviation reduction in services trade restrictiveness (OECD STRI or equivalent) predicts larger TFP growth gains in the subsequent decade than a one-standard-deviation increase in goods-sector subsidy or tariff-protection intensity, in an OECD and high-income panel 1990-2020.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/services_trade_liberalisation_frontier_growth

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd_stan:tfp_growth', 'constructed: EU KLEMS or OECD STAN sectoral TFP for services']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd_stan:tfp_growth', 'constructed: EU KLEMS or OECD STAN sectoral TFP for services']

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 35 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Services trade restrictiveness index
  • Goods sector industrial policy intensity
Possible pathway
  • Services export share
  • Foreign investment services inflows
What we checked
  • Total factor productivity growth
  • Services sector productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/services_trade_liberalisation_frontier_growth
1007550250199020052020AUSAUTBELCANCHECHLCZE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show total_factor_productivity_growth across 35 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for services_trade_liberalisation_frontier_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/services_trade_liberalisation_frontier_growth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:41Z

Services trade liberalisation predicts stronger total factor productivity growth in high-income frontier economies after 1990 than goods-sector industrial policy does. The directional claim is that a one-standard- deviation reduction in services trade restrictiveness (OECD STRI or equivalent) predicts larger TFP growth gains in the subsequent decade than a one-standard-deviation increase in goods-sector subsidy or tariff-protection intensity, in an OECD and high-income panel 1990-2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if β1 (services liberalisation) is positive and significant at p<0.10 while β2 (goods industrial policy) is insignificant or negative, AND |β1| > |β2|. PARTIAL if both are positive and significant but β1 > β2. REFUTED if β1 is negative and significant or if β2 is positive and significantly larger than β1. INFORMATIVE: the result should survive excluding the United States; if not, it is a US deregulation story rather than a general services-liberalisation effect.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_services_vs_goods_industrial_policy_tfp_frontier
threshold: β_services_lib > 0 at p<=0.10  AND |β_services_lib| > |β_goods_ip|  AND Ex-US robustness retains sign of β_services_lib.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
35 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE panel with decade differences (1990-2000, 2000-2010, 2010-2020) to reduce noise. Primary specification: ΔTFP = β1*Δservices liberalisation + β2*Δgoods industrial policy + controls + FE. Robustness: (1) exclude US to check for US-driven results; (2) use PWT TFP instead of OECD STAN; (3) restrict to EU member states to exploit within-EU regulatory variation.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
total_factor_productivity_growth
outcome
oecd_stan:tfp_growthtier 5
annual_log_change
services_sector_tfp_growth
outcome
constructed:EU KLEMS or OECD STAN sectoral TFP for servicestier 5
annual_log_change
services_trade_restrictiveness_index
treatment
oecd:overall_stritier 2
inverted_scale
goods_sector_industrial_policy_intensity
treatment
constructed:goods-sector subsidy intensity + tariff dispersion (CRDF/ITC + WITS)tier 5
z_score_composite
services_export_share
channel
world_bank_wdi:BX.GSR.CMCP.ZStier 2
pct_total_exports
fdi_services_inflows
channel
oecd:fdi_services_inwardtier 2
pct_gdp
initial_log_tfp
control
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
digital_infrastructure_index
control
constructed:broadband penetration + mobile subscriptions (ITU)tier 5
z_score_composite
regulatory_quality
control
wgi:RQ.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — services_trade_liberalisation_frontier_growth

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd_stan:tfp_growth', 'constructed: EU KLEMS or OECD STAN sectoral TFP for services']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Services trade liberalisation predicts stronger total factor productivity growth in high-income frontier economies after 1990 than goods-sector industrial policy does. The directional claim is that a one-standard- deviation reduction in services trade restrictiveness (OECD STRI or equivalent) predicts larger TFP growth gains in the subsequent decade than a one-standard-deviation increase in goods-sector subsidy or tariff-protection intensity, in an OECD and high-income panel 1990-2020.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if β1 (services liberalisation) is positive and significant at p<0.10 while β2 (goods industrial policy) is insignificant or negative, AND |β1| > |β2|. PARTIAL if both are positive and significant but β1 > β2. REFUTED if β1 is negative and significant or if β2 is positive and significantly larger than β1. INFORMATIVE: the result should survive excluding the United States; if not, it is a US deregulation story rather than a general services-liberalisation effect.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_services_vs_goods_industrial_policy_tfp_frontier

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd_stan:tfp_growth', 'constructed: EU KLEMS or OECD STAN sectoral TFP for services']

Variables resolved

  • oecd_stri:overall_stri → services_trade_restrictiveness_index (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1085)
  • pwt:rtfpna → initial_log_tfp (controls, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • wgi:RQ.EST → regulatory_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5169)

Variables missing data

  • oecd_stan:tfp_growth (outcome, name=total_factor_productivity_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: EU KLEMS or OECD STAN sectoral TFP for services (outcome, name=services_sector_tfp_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: goods-sector subsidy intensity + tariff dispersion (CRDF/ITC + WITS) (treatment, name=goods_sector_industrial_policy_intensity) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.GSR.CMCP.ZS (decomposition_channels, name=services_export_share) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd_fdi:fdi_services_inward (decomposition_channels, name=fdi_services_inflows) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: broadband penetration + mobile subscriptions (ITU) (controls, name=digital_infrastructure_index) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:41+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data readiness: - OECD STRI (available from 2014; backcasting flagged) - OECD STAN TFP (pending; PWT rtfpna used as fallback) - EU KLEMS sectoral TFP (pending) - PWT hc, WDI GDP pc (ready) - WGI RQ.EST (ready) - ITU digital infrastructure data (ready)

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.