IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_eu_2007_2013_enlargement_balkans

The EU's 2007 (BGR, ROU) and 2013 (HRV) enlargements produced a smaller per-capita-income convergence acceleration than the 2004 enlargement, because (a) accession occurred into the financial- crisis and post-crisis austerity environment rather than the pre-crisis growth boom, and (b) baseline institutional quality was lower at the accession date.

The test is staggered DiD comparing 2007 and 2013 cohorts to a non-acceding Balkans donor pool.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_lib_eu_2007_2013_enlargement_balkans

PARTIAL — ATT=+0.01288, p=0.819, N=187, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. ATT=+0.01288, p=0.819, N=187, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 9 country or place units from 1995 to 2019, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Eu 2007 2013 indicator
What we checked
  • Log income pc constant usd
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Foreign investment inflows pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_eu_2007_2013_enlargement_balkans
1007550250199520072019BGRROUHRVBIHMKDMNESRB
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_constant_usd across 9 sampled countries over 1995–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_eu_2007_2013_enlargement_balkans. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_eu_2007_2013_enlargement_balkans/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T13:28:10Z

The EU's 2007 (BGR, ROU) and 2013 (HRV) enlargements produced a smaller per-capita-income convergence acceleration than the 2004 enlargement, because (a) accession occurred into the financial- crisis and post-crisis austerity environment rather than the pre-crisis growth boom, and (b) baseline institutional quality was lower at the accession date. The test is staggered DiD comparing 2007 and 2013 cohorts to a non-acceding Balkans donor pool.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if 2007/2013 cohort ATT on log GDP per capita over h=5y is positive but smaller than the 2004-cohort ATT (formal test: <0.7× the 2004-cohort ATT). PARTIAL if positive and similar magnitude. REFUTED if the ATT is negative.

formal test & threshold
test:      cs_did_eu_2007_2013_growth_smaller_than_2004
threshold: PRIMARY: ATT(log_gdp_pc, h=5y) > 0 AND ATT(2007/2013) < 0.7 × ATT(2004). METHOD_VALID: WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD available for all units 1995-2019.

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
9 countries · 1995 – 2019
Evidence type
causal

Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD with 2007 and 2013 cohorts. Compare ATT magnitude against the 2004 cohort spec (trade_lib_eu_eastern_enlargement_2004_growth_convergence) in a follow-on cross-spec analysis.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_constant_usd
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
fdi_inflows_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
eu_2007_2013_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for BGR, ROU from 2007-01-01; HRV from 2013-07-01tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_pretreatment
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level_at_treatment_minus_1
investment_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
wgi_control_of_corruption
control
wgi:CC.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_eu_2007_2013_enlargement_balkans

Verdict: PARTIAL — ATT=+0.01288, p=0.819, N=187, treated_countries=1 (above α=0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The EU's 2007 (BGR, ROU) and 2013 (HRV) enlargements produced a smaller per-capita-income convergence acceleration than the 2004 enlargement, because (a) accession occurred into the financial- crisis and post-crisis austerity environment rather than the pre-crisis growth boom, and (b) baseline institutional quality was lower at the accession date. The test is staggered DiD comparing 2007 and 2013 cohorts to a non-acceding Balkans donor pool.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if 2007/2013 cohort ATT on log GDP per capita over h=5y is positive but smaller than the 2004-cohort ATT (formal test: <0.7× the 2004-cohort ATT). PARTIAL if positive and similar magnitude. REFUTED if the ATT is negative.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • coefficient: 0.01288347922054034
  • std_error: 0.056291366091379164
  • p_value: 0.8189689328379024
  • n_obs: 187
  • n_countries: 9
  • r_squared_within: 0.9791388576177953
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: Callaway-Sant'Anna TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • n_treated_countries: 1
  • cohort_years: [2007]
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant_usd (outcome, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_pct_gdp (outcome, n=11580)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_pretreatment (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → investment_share (controls, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wgi:CC.EST → wgi_control_of_corruption (controls, n=5201)

Missing data

  • constructed: indicator = 1 for BGR, ROU from 2007-01-01; HRV from 2013-07-01 (treatment)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T13:28:10+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.