IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_eu_eastern_enlargement_2004_growth_convergence

The 2004 EU eastern enlargement (CZE, EST, HUN, LVA, LTU, POL, SVK, SVN; plus CYP, MLT) produced an income-convergence acceleration relative to non-acceding Eastern European and CIS comparators.

The Krugman-style claim is that single-market access plus Schengen labour mobility plus the regulatory acquis drives faster catch-up of GDP-per-capita to the EU-15 mean. The test is staggered DiD against a donor pool of non-EU Eastern European economies (BIH, MKD, MNE, SRB, TUR, UKR, MDA, BLR), evaluated over the 2004-2019 window.

REFUTEDengine/runs/trade_lib_eu_eastern_enlargement_2004_growth_convergence

REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-0.1389, p=0.0215, N=397, treated_countries=8

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Do children have a better shot at moving up when schools, housing, and neighborhoods give them access to opportunity, rather than simply because a country redistributes more income?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-0.1389, p=0.0215, N=397, treated_countries=8

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 19 country or place units from 1995 to 2019, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Eu 2004 enlargement indicator
What we checked
  • Log income pc constant usd
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Foreign investment inflows pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_eu_eastern_enlargement_2004_growth_convergence
1007550250199520072019CZEESTHUNLVALTUPOLSVK
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_constant_usd across 19 sampled countries over 1995–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_eu_eastern_enlargement_2004_growth_convergence. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_eu_eastern_enlargement_2004_growth_convergence/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T20:30:50Z

The 2004 EU eastern enlargement (CZE, EST, HUN, LVA, LTU, POL, SVK, SVN; plus CYP, MLT) produced an income-convergence acceleration relative to non-acceding Eastern European and CIS comparators. The Krugman-style claim is that single-market access plus Schengen labour mobility plus the regulatory acquis drives faster catch-up of GDP-per-capita to the EU-15 mean. The test is staggered DiD against a donor pool of non-EU Eastern European economies (BIH, MKD, MNE, SRB, TUR, UKR, MDA, BLR), evaluated over the 2004-2019 window.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Callaway-Sant'Anna ATT on log GDP per capita over the 5-year and 10-year post-accession horizons is positive and significant at p<0.05, AND ATT on trade-openness is positive and significant. PARTIAL if openness rises but growth gap is insignificant — common-market access raised trade but did not measurably accelerate convergence. REFUTED if the ATT on log GDP-per-capita is negative or wrong-signed at p<0.05.

formal test & threshold
test:      cs_did_eu_2004_enlargement_growth_and_openness
threshold: PRIMARY: cs_did_ATT(log_gdp_pc, h=10y) > 0 at p<0.05 AND cs_did_ATT(trade_openness, h=10y) > 0 at p<0.05. INFORMATIVE: ex-UKR robustness retains coefficient at >=0.7 × full.

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
19 countries · 1995 – 2019
Evidence type
causal

Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD with 2004 cohort. Donor pool = non-acceding Eastern European/Balkan states. Pre-trends examined 1995-2003. Robustness: drop UKR entirely (volatile comparator); test 2007 cohort (BGR, ROU) and 2013 cohort (HRV) as separate panel waves in companion specs.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_constant_usd
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
fdi_inflows_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
eu_2004_enlargement_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for CZE, EST, HUN, LVA, LTU, POL, SVK, SVN from 2004-05-01 onward; 0 elsewheretier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_pretreatment
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level_at_treatment_minus_1
investment_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
wgi_rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_eu_eastern_enlargement_2004_growth_convergence

Verdict: REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-0.1389, p=0.0215, N=397, treated_countries=8

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The 2004 EU eastern enlargement (CZE, EST, HUN, LVA, LTU, POL, SVK, SVN; plus CYP, MLT) produced an income-convergence acceleration relative to non-acceding Eastern European and CIS comparators. The Krugman-style claim is that single-market access plus Schengen labour mobility plus the regulatory acquis drives faster catch-up of GDP-per-capita to the EU-15 mean. The test is staggered DiD against a donor pool of non-EU Eastern European economies (BIH, MKD, MNE, SRB, TUR, UKR, MDA, BLR), evaluated over the 2004-2019 window.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Callaway-Sant'Anna ATT on log GDP per capita over the 5-year and 10-year post-accession horizons is positive and significant at p<0.05, AND ATT on trade-openness is positive and significant. PARTIAL if openness rises but growth gap is insignificant — common-market access raised trade but did not measurably accelerate convergence. REFUTED if the ATT on log GDP-per-capita is negative or wrong-signed at p<0.05.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • coefficient: -0.1389252448236029
  • std_error: 0.060153326662804256
  • p_value: 0.021489769446420226
  • n_obs: 397
  • n_countries: 19
  • n_treated_countries: 8
  • cohort_years: [2004]
  • method: Callaway-Sant'Anna (TWFE approximation, country-clustered)
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant_usd (outcome, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_pct_gdp (outcome, n=11580)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for CZE, EST, HUN, LVA, LTU, POL, SVK, SVN from 2004-05-01 onward; 0 elsewhere → eu_2004_enlargement_indicator (treatment, n=475)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_pretreatment (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → investment_share (controls, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wgi:RL.EST → wgi_rule_of_law (controls, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-05-15T20:30:50+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.