IESET.
Hypotheses·regulatory·spectrum_auction_vs_administrative_allocation_telecom

Countries moving from administrative spectrum allocation to market auctions show faster mobile and internet diffusion.

PARTIALengine/runs/spectrum_auction_vs_administrative_allocation_telecom

PARTIAL — coef=-11.06, p=0.25 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether policy or institution proxy is actually linked to better or worse primary sectoral outcome from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-11.06, p=0.25 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because regulatory claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/spectrum_auction_vs_administrative_allocation_telecom
1007550250199020072023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for spectrum_auction_vs_administrative_allocation_telecom. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/spectrum_auction_vs_administrative_allocation_telecom/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:34Z

Countries moving from administrative spectrum allocation to market auctions show faster mobile and internet diffusion.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_spectrum_auction_vs_administrative_allocation_telecom
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:IT.NET.USER.ZStier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:1 for USA from 1994 onward; GBR from 2000 onward; DEU from 2000 onward; IND from 2010 onwardtier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — spectrum_auction_vs_administrative_allocation_telecom

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-11.06, p=0.25 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Countries moving from administrative spectrum allocation to market auctions show faster mobile and internet diffusion.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_spectrum_auction_vs_administrative_allocation_telecom

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -11.06
  • Std error: 9.605
  • p-value: 0.25
  • Observations: 572, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.0763
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:IT.NET.USER.ZS → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6833)
  • constructed: 1 for USA from 1994 onward; GBR from 2000 onward; DEU from 2000 onward; IND from 2010 onward → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1020)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.