IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·tariff_protection_duration_growth_drag

Longer durations of sustained tariff protection predict weaker subsequent export competitiveness (lower real export growth and slower export- complexity upgrading) and lower real household consumption per capita growth, in a broad-country panel 1970-2020.

The directional claim is that each additional decade of protection, measured by applied weighted-mean tariffs above 15%, is associated with roughly 0.2-0.5 percentage points lower annual export growth and 0.1-0.3 percentage points lower consumption growth in the following decade, controlling for initial income, institutions, and terms of trade.

PARTIALengine/runs/tariff_protection_duration_growth_drag

PARTIAL — coef=+0.008303, p=0.674 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.008303, p=0.674 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 66 country or place units from 1970 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Protection duration decades
  • Applied weighted mean tariff
Possible pathway
  • Import penetration ratio
  • Export product diversification
What we checked
  • Real export growth
  • Export complexity index change
  • Real household consumption per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/tariff_protection_duration_growth_drag
1007550250197019952020ARGAUSAUTBELBGDBOLBRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_export_growth across 66 sampled countries over 1970–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for tariff_protection_duration_growth_drag. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/tariff_protection_duration_growth_drag/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:42Z

Longer durations of sustained tariff protection predict weaker subsequent export competitiveness (lower real export growth and slower export- complexity upgrading) and lower real household consumption per capita growth, in a broad-country panel 1970-2020. The directional claim is that each additional decade of protection, measured by applied weighted-mean tariffs above 15%, is associated with roughly 0.2-0.5 percentage points lower annual export growth and 0.1-0.3 percentage points lower consumption growth in the following decade, controlling for initial income, institutions, and terms of trade.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if β1 (protection duration) is negative and significant at p<0.10 for both real export growth and consumption per capita growth. PARTIAL if negative and significant for exports but not for consumption (competitiveness loss without household welfare drag). REFUTED if β1 is positive and significant at p<0.10 for either outcome. INFORMATIVE: the coefficient should be more negative for high-income (frontier) countries than for low-income catch-up economies; if the opposite holds, the result is a development-stage artefact.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_protection_duration_export_and_consumption_growth
threshold: β_protection_duration < 0 at p<=0.10 for real export growth  AND β_protection_duration < 0 at p<=0.10 for consumption pc growth  AND Frontier subsample coefficient <= catch-up subsample coefficient.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
66 countries · 1970 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE panel with 10-year non-overlapping windows (1970-1980, 1980-1990, etc.) to capture medium-run structural effects. Primary specification: outcome = β0 + β1*protection_duration + β2*current_tariff + controls + FE. Robustness: (1) use tariff level instead of duration as alternative treatment; (2) subsample analysis by income level (frontier vs catch-up); (3) local projections tracing dynamic response of exports and consumption to protection spells.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_export_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZGtier 2
annual_log_change
export_complexity_index_change
outcome
constructed:Atlas of Economic Complexity ECI 5-year changetier 5
5yr_change
real_household_consumption_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.ZStier 2
annual_log_change_per_capita
protection_duration_decades
treatment
constructed:cumulative years with applied weighted-mean tariff > 15%tier 5
level
applied_weighted_mean_tariff
treatment
wits:weighted_mean_applied_tarifftier 2
level
import_penetration_ratio
channel
wits:import_valuetier 2
ratio_to_gdp
export_product_diversification
channel
un_comtrade:unique_hs6_productstier 2
count
initial_log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
institutional_quality
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
terms_of_trade_index
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRM.TRAD.XD.WDtier 2
level
investment_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
population_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROWtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — tariff_protection_duration_growth_drag

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.008303, p=0.674 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Longer durations of sustained tariff protection predict weaker subsequent export competitiveness (lower real export growth and slower export- complexity upgrading) and lower real household consumption per capita growth, in a broad-country panel 1970-2020. The directional claim is that each additional decade of protection, measured by applied weighted-mean tariffs above 15%, is associated with roughly 0.2-0.5 percentage points lower annual export growth and 0.1-0.3 percentage points lower consumption growth in the following decade, controlling for initial income, institutions, and terms of trade.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if β1 (protection duration) is negative and significant at p<0.10 for both real export growth and consumption per capita growth. PARTIAL if negative and significant for exports but not for consumption (competitiveness loss without household welfare drag). REFUTED if β1 is positive and significant at p<0.10 for either outcome. INFORMATIVE: the coefficient should be more negative for high-income (frontier) countries than for low-income catch-up economies; if the opposite holds, the result is a development-stage artefact.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_protection_duration_export_and_consumption_growth

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.008303
  • Std error: 0.01976
  • p-value: 0.674
  • Observations: 840, countries: 52
  • Within R²: 0.0523
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG → real_export_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8722)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.ZS → real_household_consumption_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10515)
  • world_bank_wits:weighted_mean_applied_tariff → applied_weighted_mean_tariff (treatment, publisher=wits, n=3806)
  • world_bank_wits:import_value → import_penetration_ratio (decomposition_channels, publisher=wits, n=14395)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → initial_log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → institutional_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → investment_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROW → population_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16672)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: Atlas of Economic Complexity ECI 5-year change (outcome, name=export_complexity_index_change) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: cumulative years with applied weighted-mean tariff > 15% (treatment, name=protection_duration_decades) — vintage not on disk
  • un_comtrade:unique_hs6_products (decomposition_channels, name=export_product_diversification) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRM.TRAD.XD.WD (controls, name=terms_of_trade_index) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:42+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data readiness: - World Bank WITS applied weighted-mean tariff (ready) - WDI real export growth, consumption, GDP pc, investment, population (ready) - WGI RL.EST (ready) - UN Comtrade product diversity (ready) - Harvard CID ECI (pending direct fetcher)

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.