IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_chile_bilateral_fta_cascade

Chile's bilateral-FTA cascade (Canada 1997, Mexico 1999, EU 2003, Korea 2004, US 2004, China 2006, Japan 2007) is associated with Chile's trade-openness-to-GDP rising from approximately 50% in 1990 to over 70% by 2019 — among the largest sustained increases in Latin America.

The descriptive claim is a within-country trajectory comparison plus a Latin American comparator descriptive test.

REFUTEDengine/runs/trade_lib_chile_bilateral_fta_cascade

REFUTED — CHL openness rose +7.3pp but comparator differential moved -9.0pp

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. CHL openness rose +7.3pp but comparator differential moved -9.0pp

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 1985 to 2019, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Weighted applied tariff
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_chile_bilateral_fta_cascade
1007550250198520022019CHLARGBRACOLPERMEX
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 6 sampled countries over 1985–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_chile_bilateral_fta_cascade. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_chile_bilateral_fta_cascade/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-16T13:42:50Z

Chile's bilateral-FTA cascade (Canada 1997, Mexico 1999, EU 2003, Korea 2004, US 2004, China 2006, Japan 2007) is associated with Chile's trade-openness-to-GDP rising from approximately 50% in 1990 to over 70% by 2019 — among the largest sustained increases in Latin America. The descriptive claim is a within-country trajectory comparison plus a Latin American comparator descriptive test.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Chile trade-openness 2010-2019 mean exceeds 1985- 1994 mean by >=15 pp AND Chile-comparator differential increased by >=10 pp over the same window. REFUTED if the differential did not increase.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_chile_fta_cascade_trade_openness
threshold: PRIMARY: openness_change(CHL, 1985-1994 -> 2010-2019) >= +15 pp AND (CHL - comparator) differential change >= +10 pp.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
6 countries · 1985 – 2019
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive trajectory comparison. Reports Chilean trade- openness 1985-2019 vs Latin American comparator mean.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
weighted_applied_tariff
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_chile_bilateral_fta_cascade

Verdict: REFUTED — CHL openness rose +7.3pp but comparator differential moved -9.0pp

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Chile's bilateral-FTA cascade (Canada 1997, Mexico 1999, EU 2003, Korea 2004, US 2004, China 2006, Japan 2007) is associated with Chile's trade-openness-to-GDP rising from approximately 50% in 1990 to over 70% by 2019 — among the largest sustained increases in Latin America. The descriptive claim is a within-country trajectory comparison plus a Latin American comparator descriptive test.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Chile trade-openness 2010-2019 mean exceeds 1985- 1994 mean by >=15 pp AND Chile-comparator differential increased by >=10 pp over the same window. REFUTED if the differential did not increase.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_chile_fta_cascade_trade_openness

Comparison

  • shape: registered_chile_fta_differential_gate
  • source: world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
  • publisher: world_bank_wdi
  • country: CHL
  • primary_delta: {'country': 'CHL', 'pre': {'country': 'CHL', 'window': [1985, 1994], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 55.53220425784765, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 1985, 'year_max': 1994}, 'post': {'country': 'CHL', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 62.83553176447716, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 7.303327506629508}
  • peer_deltas: [{'country': 'ARG', 'pre': {'country': 'ARG', 'window': [1985, 1994], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 16.11580751163366, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 1985, 'year_max': 1994}, 'post': {'country': 'ARG', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 29.57072993589555, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 13.454922424261891}, {'country': 'BRA', 'pre': {'country': 'BRA', 'window': [1985, 1994], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 17.40060724005367, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 1985, 'year_max': 1994}, 'post': {'country': 'BRA', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 25.58657236758698, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 8.185965127533311}, {'country': 'COL', 'pre': {'country': 'COL', 'window': [1985, 1994], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 32.300803994518176, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 1985, 'year_max': 1994}, 'post': {'country': 'COL', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 37.19839110037722, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 4.897587105859046}, {'country': 'PER', 'pre': {'country': 'PER', 'window': [1985, 1994], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 30.430030654395814, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 1985, 'year_max': 1994}, 'post': {'country': 'PER', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 49.05613838172319, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 18.626107727327373}, {'country': 'MEX', 'pre': {'country': 'MEX', 'window': [1985, 1994], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 32.75011460304696, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 1985, 'year_max': 1994}, 'post': {'country': 'MEX', 'window': [2010, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 69.32138255444032, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 2010, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 36.57126795139336}]
  • peer_mean_delta_pp: 16.347170067274995
  • differential_change_pp: -9.043842560645487
  • support_gate_chl_delta_ge_15pp: False
  • support_gate_differential_ge_10pp: False
  • refute_gate_differential_not_increased: True

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 50.0}

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS → weighted_applied_tariff (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3806)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-16T13:42:50+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.