IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_indonesia_1980s_1990s_unilateral

Indonesia's 1985-1995 unilateral trade-liberalisation reforms (tariff reductions, customs reform under the Inpres 4 1985 package, removal of import licensing) raised manufacturing exports and trade-openness ratios over the 1985-1996 window before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis interrupted the trajectory.

The descriptive claim is a structural break with trade-share rising substantially over the pre-AFC decade.

REFUTEDengine/runs/trade_lib_indonesia_1980s_1990s_unilateral

REFUTED — trade openness rose only +1.9pp, below the +5pp refutation gate

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. trade openness rose only +1.9pp, below the +5pp refutation gate

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 4 country or place units from 1975 to 2000, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Log manufacturing value added
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_indonesia_1980s_1990s_unilateral
1007550250197519882000IDNMYSTHAPHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 4 sampled countries over 1975–2000.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_indonesia_1980s_1990s_unilateral. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_indonesia_1980s_1990s_unilateral/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-16T13:42:48Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Indonesia's 1985-1995 unilateral trade-liberalisation reforms (tariff reductions, customs reform under the Inpres 4 1985 package, removal of import licensing) raised manufacturing exports and trade-openness ratios over the 1985-1996 window before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis interrupted the trajectory. The descriptive claim is a structural break with trade-share rising substantially over the pre-AFC decade.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if mean trade-openness 1986-1996 minus mean trade- openness 1975-1984 exceeds +10 pp. REFUTED if less than +5 pp.

formal test & threshold
test:      indonesia_pre_post_1985_trade_openness_break
threshold: PRIMARY: openness_change(1986-1996 vs 1975-1984) >= +10 pp.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
4 countries · 1975 – 2000
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive structural-break test. Pre-1985 (1975-1984) vs post-1985 pre-AFC (1986-1996) trade-openness comparison for Indonesia. Comparison with Southeast Asian peers as auxiliary descriptive context.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_manufacturing_value_added
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_indonesia_1980s_1990s_unilateral

Verdict: REFUTED — trade openness rose only +1.9pp, below the +5pp refutation gate

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Indonesia's 1985-1995 unilateral trade-liberalisation reforms (tariff reductions, customs reform under the Inpres 4 1985 package, removal of import licensing) raised manufacturing exports and trade-openness ratios over the 1985-1996 window before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis interrupted the trajectory. The descriptive claim is a structural break with trade-share rising substantially over the pre-AFC decade.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if mean trade-openness 1986-1996 minus mean trade- openness 1975-1984 exceeds +10 pp. REFUTED if less than +5 pp.
  • Falsification test: indonesia_pre_post_1985_trade_openness_break

Comparison

  • shape: registered_trade_window_delta
  • source: world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
  • publisher: world_bank_wdi
  • country: IDN
  • primary_delta: {'country': 'IDN', 'pre': {'country': 'IDN', 'window': [1975, 1984], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 48.864577569475806, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 1975, 'year_max': 1984}, 'post': {'country': 'IDN', 'window': [1986, 1996], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 50.73662838584406, 'n_years': 11, 'year_min': 1986, 'year_max': 1996}, 'delta_pp': 1.872050816368251}
  • peer_deltas: [{'country': 'MYS', 'pre': {'country': 'MYS', 'window': [1975, 1984], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 102.08717972851817, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 1975, 'year_max': 1984}, 'post': {'country': 'MYS', 'window': [1986, 1996], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 149.66064913789253, 'n_years': 11, 'year_min': 1986, 'year_max': 1996}, 'delta_pp': 47.57346940937437}, {'country': 'THA', 'pre': {'country': 'THA', 'window': [1975, 1984], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 47.69310221615933, 'n_years': 10, 'year_min': 1975, 'year_max': 1984}, 'post': {'country': 'THA', 'window': [1986, 1996], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 73.76843466176999, 'n_years': 11, 'year_min': 1986, 'year_max': 1996}, 'delta_pp': 26.075332445610655}, {'country': 'PHL', 'pre': {'country': 'PHL', 'window': [1975, 1984], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 34.146979329063555, 'n_years': 4, 'year_min': 1981, 'year_max': 1984}, 'post': {'country': 'PHL', 'window': [1986, 1996], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 46.2740735318317, 'n_years': 11, 'year_min': 1986, 'year_max': 1996}, 'delta_pp': 12.127094202768141}]
  • peer_mean_delta_pp: 28.591965352584385
  • support_gate_delta_ge_10pp: False
  • refute_gate_delta_lt_5pp: True

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD → log_manufacturing_value_added (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8624)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-16T13:42:48+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.