IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_japan_cptpp_2018_trade_effect

Japan's CPTPP entry (2018-12-30) plus the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (effective 2019-02-01) jointly produced a modest measurable trade-openness expansion for Japan over the 2019-2024 window relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of large advanced economies.

Effects are expected to be small given Japan's already-extensive bilateral coverage and structurally low trade-openness (~30% of GDP) relative to other advanced economies.

PARTIALengine/runs/trade_lib_japan_cptpp_2018_trade_effect

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-27.42, |gap|/pre_sd=9, p_perm=0.333; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-27.42, |gap|/pre_sd=9, p_perm=0.333; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 9 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a synthetic control design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Japan mega fta indicator
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Merchandise exports pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_japan_cptpp_2018_trade_effect
1007550250201020172024JPNUSAKORAUSCANGBRDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 9 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_japan_cptpp_2018_trade_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_japan_cptpp_2018_trade_effect/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:33Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Japan's CPTPP entry (2018-12-30) plus the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (effective 2019-02-01) jointly produced a modest measurable trade-openness expansion for Japan over the 2019-2024 window relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of large advanced economies. Effects are expected to be small given Japan's already-extensive bilateral coverage and structurally low trade-openness (~30% of GDP) relative to other advanced economies.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if SC gap on trade-openness is positive at point estimate by 2024. PARTIAL if positive but small. REFUTED if negative.

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_japan_megafta_2019
threshold: PRIMARY: SC_gap(trade_openness, 2024) > 0 (point estimate).

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Clustering
country
Sample
9 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Synthetic-control estimator for Japan vs advanced-economy donor pool. Pre-treatment 2010-2018; post-treatment 2019-2024.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
japan_mega_fta_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for JPN from 2019-01-01 (CPTPP/EPA bundle)tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_pretreatment
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level_at_treatment_minus_1
real_effective_exchange_rate
control
imf:REERtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_japan_cptpp_2018_trade_effect

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-27.42, |gap|/pre_sd=9, p_perm=0.333; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Japan's CPTPP entry (2018-12-30) plus the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (effective 2019-02-01) jointly produced a modest measurable trade-openness expansion for Japan over the 2019-2024 window relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of large advanced economies. Effects are expected to be small given Japan's already-extensive bilateral coverage and structurally low trade-openness (~30% of GDP) relative to other advanced economies.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if SC gap on trade-openness is positive at point estimate by 2024. PARTIAL if positive but small. REFUTED if negative.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: JPN
  • event_year: 2018
  • n_donors: 8
  • donor_weights (top): {'FRA': 0.9778, 'CAN': 0.0222, 'USA': 0.0, 'KOR': 0.0, 'AUS': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 29.295519696762856
  • pre_period_sd: 3.0532408288939545
  • mean_post_gap: -27.420876750127395
  • end_period_gap: -21.635610567685987
  • post_period_years: [2018, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.3333333333333333
  • n_placebos: 8
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, n=10779)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_pretreatment (controls, n=14131)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:33+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.