IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_trump_china_tariffs_2018_2024

The Trump administration's Section-301 China tariffs (2018-2019, cumulating to >USD 350bn of imports under tariff by end 2019), largely retained by the Biden administration through 2024, reduced US-China bilateral trade-openness while raising US trade with bilateral substitutes (Vietnam, Mexico, Taiwan).

The aggregate US trade-to-GDP ratio is hypothesised to be roughly unchanged; the bilateral composition shifted measurably.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/trade_lib_trump_china_tariffs_2018_2024

SUPPORTED — shape=panel_summary, sign matches claim -, |Δ_log|=0.876, ratio=0.416

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. shape=panel_summary, sign matches claim -, |Δ_log|=0.876, ratio=0.416

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Trump section301 indicator
What we checked
  • Us trade openness pct income
  • Us imports pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_trump_china_tariffs_2018_2024
1007550250201020172024USACHNVNMMEXTWNIND
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show us_trade_openness_pct_gdp across 6 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_trump_china_tariffs_2018_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_trump_china_tariffs_2018_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T08:07:40Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The Trump administration's Section-301 China tariffs (2018-2019, cumulating to >USD 350bn of imports under tariff by end 2019), largely retained by the Biden administration through 2024, reduced US-China bilateral trade-openness while raising US trade with bilateral substitutes (Vietnam, Mexico, Taiwan). The aggregate US trade-to-GDP ratio is hypothesised to be roughly unchanged; the bilateral composition shifted measurably.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if (a) US aggregate trade-openness 2019-2024 mean is within +/- 2 pp of 2010-2017 mean (rough invariance), AND (b) US merchandise-imports-share-of-GDP shows similar invariance. The composition-shift mechanism is documented qualitatively in the disclosure note. REFUTED if aggregate trade-openness fell substantially (>3 pp), which would suggest tariffs were trade-destroying at the aggregate level.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_us_aggregate_trade_invariance_under_section301
threshold: PRIMARY: |delta_aggregate_trade_openness_USA(2010-17 vs 2019-24)| <= 2 pp.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
6 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive structural-break test. Reports US aggregate trade-openness 2010-2017 vs 2019-2024 means; reports bilateral US-China share of US imports as composition test. Cannot identify causal effect on aggregate trade ratios at macro level — the test is whether the aggregate is approximately invariant while composition shifts.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
us_trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
us_imports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.IMP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
trump_section301_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for USA from 2018-07 (initial Section 301 wave)tier 5
indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.