IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·uk_brexit_2016_inflation_real_earnings_window

The 2016 Brexit referendum shock produced a clear near-term UK inflation pass-through and a squeeze in CPI-deflated weekly earnings over the 2016Q2-2017Q4 event window.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/uk_brexit_2016_inflation_real_earnings_window

SUPPORTED

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether brexit referendum is actually linked to better or worse cpih inflation from 2016 to 2017.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. SUPPORTED

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2016 to 2017, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Brexit referendum
What we checked
  • Cpih inflation
  • Cpi index
  • Weekly earnings
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/uk_brexit_2016_inflation_real_earnings_window
1007550250201620172017GBR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpih_inflation across 1 sampled countries over 2016–2017.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for uk_brexit_2016_inflation_real_earnings_window. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/uk_brexit_2016_inflation_real_earnings_window/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

The 2016 Brexit referendum shock produced a clear near-term UK inflation pass-through and a squeeze in CPI-deflated weekly earnings over the 2016Q2-2017Q4 event window.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 2 of 3 metrics pass: annual CPIH rises by more than 1pp from 2016 to 2017, the CPI level rises by more than 3.5 percent from 2016Q2 to 2017Q4, and CPI-deflated weekly earnings fall over the same window. REFUTED if 1 or fewer pass.

formal test & threshold
test:      uk_brexit_2016_inflation_real_earnings_three_metric_window
threshold: SUPPORTED if >= 2 metrics pass; REFUTED if <= 1 pass.

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 2016 – 2017
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Compact national event-window replication from cached ONS/INE/BCRA vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpih_inflation
outcome
ons:L55Otier 1
annual percent yoy
cpi_index
outcome
ons:D7BTtier 1
quarterly index
weekly_earnings
outcome
ons:KAB9tier 1
quarterly level deflated by CPI
brexit_referendum
treatment
constructed:2016-06-23 referendum shocktier 5
event indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - uk_brexit_2016_inflation_real_earnings_window

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 3/3 metrics passed (support >= 2; refute <= 1).

Claim

The 2016 Brexit referendum shock produced a clear near-term UK inflation pass-through and a squeeze in CPI-deflated weekly earnings over the 2016Q2-2017Q4 event window.

Metrics

| Metric | Value | Threshold | Pass | Details | |---|---:|---|:---:|---| | cpih_inflation_step_up | 1.600 | >1pp 2016 to 2017 | yes | 1.0% to 2.6% | | cpi_level_pass_through | 4.183 | >3.5% cumulative CPI increase | yes | 100.4 to 104.6 | | real_weekly_earnings_squeeze | -0.906 | <0% real weekly earnings growth | yes | KAB9/CPI 4.920 to 4.876 |

Interpretation

This is a compact predeclared event-window verdict using local cached national-statistics vintages. It is strong for timing and magnitude, but not a full causal structural decomposition.

Provenance

See manifest.yaml for exact vintage files and SHA-256 hashes. Re-run with replication.py.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by scripts/generate_national_event_wave.py from local cached vintages; no network fetch required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.