IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·wdi_remittance_current_account_cushion_2000_2023

High-remittance economies should usually avoid extreme average current-account deficits over 2000-2023 because worker transfers directly finance external balances.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/wdi_remittance_current_account_cushion_2000_2023

supported

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. supported

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 38 country or place units from 2000 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Remittances pct income
What we checked
  • Current account pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/wdi_remittance_current_account_cushion_2000_2023
1007550250200020122023ALBARMBIHBMUCOMCPVDOM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show current_account_pct_gdp across 38 sampled countries over 2000–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for wdi_remittance_current_account_cushion_2000_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/wdi_remittance_current_account_cushion_2000_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 3fc4c7e · 2026-05-02T17:38:10Z

High-remittance economies should usually avoid extreme average current-account deficits over 2000-2023 because worker transfers directly finance external balances.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if n>=25, at least 70% of high-remittance economies average no worse than -10% of GDP on the current account, and the median average is >=-7%. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or the median is below -12%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      wdi_remittance_current_account_cushion_2000_2023
threshold: n >= 25 AND pass_rate >= 0.70 AND median_avg_current_account_pct_gdp >= -7

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
38 countries · 2000 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Custom endpoint/mean panel replication using local WDI/OWID vintages and fixed country-selection thresholds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
current_account_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZStier 2
2000-2023 annual mean
remittances_pct_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZStier 2
country selected if 2000-2023 mean >= 8% of GDP

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - wdi_remittance_current_account_cushion_2000_2023

Verdict: supported - 33 of 38 countries passed (86.8%); median avg_current_account_pct_gdp = -6.20

Predeclared Threshold

SUPPORTED if n>=25, at least 70% of high-remittance economies average no worse than -10% of GDP on the current account, and the median average is >=-7%. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or the median is below -12%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

Threshold expression: n >= 25 AND pass_rate >= 0.70 AND median_avg_current_account_pct_gdp >= -7

Metrics

  • n_countries: 38
  • countries_passing: 33
  • pass_rate: 0.868421052631579
  • median_avg_current_account_pct_gdp: -6.204269913299112

Country Panel

| country_iso3 | country_name | avg_remittances_pct_gdp | avg_current_account_pct_gdp | pass | |---|---|---|---|---| | ALB | Albania | 12.42 | -8.41 | yes | | ARM | Armenia | 14.44 | -6.73 | yes | | BIH | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 14.39 | -8.11 | yes | | BMU | Bermuda | 20.73 | 13.51 | yes | | COM | Comoros | 13.05 | -3.24 | yes | | CPV | Cabo Verde | 11.36 | -8.81 | yes | | DOM | Dominican Republic | 8.25 | -3.05 | yes | | GEO | Georgia | 9.95 | -9.86 | yes | | GMB | Gambia, The | 11.33 | -4.21 | yes | | GTM | Guatemala | 11.45 | -1.99 | yes | | GUY | Guyana | 8.93 | -8.37 | yes | | HND | Honduras | 17.80 | -5.66 | yes | | HTI | Haiti | 14.51 | -1.75 | yes | | JAM | Jamaica | 15.74 | -6.55 | yes | | JOR | Jordan | 15.09 | -6.47 | yes | | KGZ | Kyrgyz Republic | 21.38 | -9.27 | yes | | KIR | Kiribati | 8.43 | 8.83 | yes | | LBN | Lebanon | 20.14 | -19.73 | no | | LBR | Liberia | 13.28 | -20.26 | no | | LSO | Lesotho | 29.84 | -3.33 | yes | | MDA | Moldova | 21.52 | -8.23 | yes | | MHL | Marshall Islands | 15.30 | 3.70 | yes | | MNE | Montenegro | 10.74 | -19.24 | no | | NIC | Nicaragua | 11.01 | -8.72 | yes | | NPL | Nepal | 19.56 | -0.12 | yes | | PHL | Philippines | 10.27 | 0.94 | yes | | PSE | West Bank and Gaza | 14.11 | -15.43 | no | | PYF | French Polynesia | 10.69 | 1.59 | yes | | SEN | Senegal | 8.65 | -8.09 | yes | | SLV | El Salvador | 19.78 | -3.88 | yes | | TJK | Tajikistan | 31.40 | -5.46 | yes | | TON | Tonga | 30.29 | -10.93 | no | | TUV | Tuvalu | 13.37 | -9.16 | yes | | UZB | Uzbekistan | 9.74 | 1.48 | yes | | WSM | Samoa | 18.51 | -5.48 | yes | | XKX | Kosovo | 17.06 | -8.36 | yes | | YEM | Yemen, Rep. | 8.45 | -3.74 | yes | | ZWE | Zimbabwe | 8.64 | -5.94 | yes |

Interpretation

This is a descriptive structural-screen verdict using local WDI/OWID vintages. It grades the predeclared pattern, not a causal effect of a single policy lever.

Steelman

See hypotheses/steelman/wdi_remittance_current_account_cushion_2000_2023.md.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.